How Trump’s Venezuela Gamble Will Transform Latin America |
When U.S. President Donald Trump announced the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro after American military strikes in Caracas last Saturday, he quickly hinted that Venezuela was not an isolated case. Trump also threatened Mexico, Colombia, and Cuba. Senior U.S. officials echoed this rhetoric. The message was unmistakable: toppling Latin American leaders by force was back on the table as an acceptable tool of U.S. policy in the region. Even countries that cooperate closely with the U.S., such as Colombia and Mexico, can no longer take their sovereignty for granted.
Regional responses to Maduro’s capture have tracked ideology, with right-wing leaders praising Trump and left-wingers criticizing him. Yet irrespective of the ideological orientation of their governments the military establishment in the region—long one seen as free of interstate conflict—has been scrambling to adapt to a transformed security landscape.
In this context, Trump’s belligerent signaling has created a perverse strategic dilemma for Latin American governments. On one hand, every country in the region would benefit from a democratic, stable, and prosperous Venezuela. The country’s economic collapse over the past decade has inflicted tremendous costs on its........