Iran Toppled the Shah in 1979. Why This Time Isn’t Quite Like That |
Iran is a cauldron. On Dec. 28, merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar refused to open their stores in protest against steep inflation, the precipitous drop in the value of the currency and bleak economic circumstances. The bazaar has historically been one of Iran’s most important power centers, and when its merchants strike, it signals both economic desperation and political discontent.
Protests briskly erupted in every province, from remote towns battered by unemployment and neglect to Tehran and other major cities. Iranian authorities have blocked access to the internet, arrested thousands and killed hundreds of protesters. President Donald Trump is weighing military strikes on Iran as the protests continue.
The economic catastrophe in Iran is the product of eight years of U.S. policies that combine comprehensive sanctions with covert operations, cyberattacks and military strikes. While these measures were aimed at weakening the Iranian government, they devastated the economic security of ordinary Iranians. And the Iranian elite with connections to the state, particularly those linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, profited from sanctions evasion.
The Iranian rial’s precipitous decline— losing approximately 90% of its value against the dollar over the past year—accelerated dramatically after military strikes on Iran by the U.S. and Israel last summer. Fear of renewed hostilities undermined hopes of recovery. Inflation made basic goods unaffordable for millions. Iran’s oil revenues—a crucial source of state income—were severely constrained by renewed sanctions and the government failed to offer viable economic policies to address the crisis while severely mismanaging the economy. The result was the perfect storm: soaring prices, currency flight, and widespread economic anxiety.
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A survey of social-media posts and commentary across newspapers, magazines, and television networks conveys a sense that the Islamic Republic is on the brink of collapse—beset by a grave economic crisis, facing a mass revolt undeterred by repression, and confronting an unorthodox American President who appears increasingly open to military strikes. Yet the larger question remains: Are the structural conditions in Iran today comparable to those that precipitated the Shah’s downfall and the triumph of the revolution of 1979?
The 1979 revolution didn’t succeed because Iranians were angry. They........