How Trump and Xi Traded a New Cold War for a Cold Peace |
President Donald Trump is back from Beijing after a state visit, the first by an American leader since he made the trip in 2017. In the intervening years, this most consequential bilateral relationship in the world had become dysfunctional, battered by a cascade of schisms including a global pandemic, increasing ideological antagonism, accelerating geopolitical rivalry, and surging trade tension. The United States and China seemed unable to have a dialogue, and conflict seemed inevitable.
The question now is, having travelled across the world, what did Trump achieve in China? It is true that there was no “grand bargain”—yet he managed to move the U.S.-China relationship in a more positive direction, to the benefit of both countries and the world. Indeed, the tone between the two superpowers is moving away from endless confrontation and toward stability and, mutual respect, and renewed cooperation.
This is because the symbolism and pageantry of the state visit, and the sustained, face-to-face dialogue between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping over two days, represent a success in their own right and serve to build confidence and inject stability into the relationship, something that cannot be replaced by phone calls or brief meetings on the sidelines of other gatherings. This is especially true in light of the many storms the U.S.-China relationship has weathered in recent years.
Avoiding the Thucydides Trap
And it’s likely that things will get better. Trump and Xi might meet three more times this year. There is ample opportunity to continue developing goodwill, finding areas of cooperation, managing tensions, and pivoting the relationship away from a New Cold War toward a Cold Peace.
Contrary to the allegations by many analysts in Washington, President Trump’s stance toward China is not about “surrendering” U.S. interests or “getting played” by Beijing. He correctly recognizes that China is no longer merely a “rising” power but a true peer in many respects, and that the U.S. must secure a peaceful and more productive coexistence with China, rather than pursuing ever more unsustainable schemes to contain........