During the early years of the Cold War, the “domino theory” drove foreign policy.  It argued that if one country went communist, its neighbors would be next, so the imperative was to intervene early and hard. The result was a series of military commitments, culminating in Vietnam, that discredited the theory.

Today, the world is suffering from a new version of the domino effect, marked by the spread of instability rather than of communism. The world is much more interconnected than 60 years ago, and from energy prices to AI-generated deepfakes to flows of people, the speed of transfer is viral. Yet in place of Cold War paranoia about knock-on effects, there is complacency. The war in Iran exemplifies the dangers. 

The newly announced two-week ceasefire with Iran is a welcome pause—but it is partial, fragile, and will not end the domino effect of conflict the region is currently experiencing in countries like Lebanon and Syria. In fact, the ceasefire underscores how fragmented this crisis has become. Even if it holds, the longer-term consequences demand urgent mitigation.

The consequences of the war were never going to be confined within Iran’s borders, yet the shock absorbers have not been put in place to mitigate the damage. The immediate impact of the war in Iran is regional, but the danger is global. 

Across a swathe of Middle Eastern countries, bookended by Afghanistan and Pakistan in South Asia and Sudan in Northeast Africa, there are already 115 million people in........

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