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Who is winning and losing in the US-Israel war on Iran? Here’s a perception rating

It's been over a month since the war began. Where do Iran, Israel, US, Europe, Pakistan and India stand?

American presidents are remembered globally for the ways in which they changed the world: For better or for worse.

If not for Franklin D Roosevelt, Hitler might have won the Second World War. The collapse of the Soviet Union was at least partly a consequence of Ronald Reagan’s policies. On the other hand, Harry Truman is remembered for being the only man to destroy two cities with nuclear bombs. George W Bush caused chaos in the Middle East with the unnecessary second Gulf War.

But I doubt any American President will be remembered less favourably than Donald Trump. The Iran War has lost America so many friends and had such a negative global impact that the world will probably heave a sigh of relief when Trump’s term ends.

Here are some instances of how Trump’s actions have wreaked havoc internationally.

Also read: Trump’s fanboys in BJP are now proved wrong. Lesson here is to never personalise diplomacy

In some ways Iran is the biggest loser in this war. American missiles have degraded its military capabilities and caused untold suffering among civilians, thousands of whom have been killed.

But in some strange way it is also a winner. Before Trump launched his attack, the Iranian regime was globally isolated. It was seen as deeply regressive and repressive; one that lowered the dignity of women and targeted gay people; its leading lights were fanatics and fundamentalists; and it did not hesitate to murder and execute dissidents.

From all accounts Trump was told by Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu that a series of quick aerial strikes would decapitate the regime and cause ordinary Iranians to rise up in revolt.

Despite the experience of the invasion of Iraq—where the US believed that its army would be welcomed by joyous civilians only to find that this was not the case—Trump seems to have believed Netanyahu.

In fact, the Iranians have outmaneuvered Trump, exposed the limits of American power and left him scrambling to get out of a disastrous war that has severely damaged the global economy while gaining nothing for America.

In the process, the terrible medieval nature of the Iranian regime has been forgotten and Iran is being hailed as the country that stood up to US aggression. Even within Iran, dissidents are finding it difficult to explain to people that America, which is destroying their cities, is trying to help them.

Under Netanyahu Israel’s global image has plummeted. Even before this war, anti-Israel protests around the world were at an all-time high.

While it is impossible to justify the Israeli assault on Gaza, it was still possible to argue that Israel was responding to a terror act from Hamas, that civilians were hurt because Hamas chose to use civilian areas such as hospitals as offices and military posts and that Hamas could have ended the Israeli attacks any time it wanted by releasing the hostages it held.

This approach is no longer possible after Israel used Trump’s invasion of Iran to launch a Gaza-like aerial campaign in Lebanon, killing thousands of civilians and rendering even more homeless.

Nor is it possible to persuade people that Netanyahu is so unpopular in Israel that his aggression is partly prompted by a desire to cling on to power.

After this war, many of those who were on the fence have turned against Israel. Whoever succeeds Netanyahu when he goes (which he will, inevitably) will have to struggle to win global support.

Also read: Chinese say Beijing is negotiating Iran ceasefire talks. Pakistan is a proxy

NATO is a holdover from the Cold War, when the West believed that it had to unite to defeat the Soviet Union. It survived because Europe and America both believed they had much in common and NATO saw itself as a force for good in times of crisis.

In his first term Trump made it clear that he had no time for NATO, even though he alone could not take the US out of the alliance and needed Congressional approval.

Nevertheless, some tenuous affection between America and Europe remained. That’s gone after Trump’s personal attacks on France’s Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Keir Starmer. Most of Europe thinks Trump is crazy.

And who is to say that they are wrong?

Antagonising the Pope

To blame Europe for not helping America is not unprecedented; remember the references to ‘cheese-eating surrender monkeys’ during the second Gulf War? But getting into a fight with the Pope? And that too, with the first American Pope?

Trump has managed to do just that. Worse still, shortly before that he posted a picture of himself as a Christ-like figure!

When the uproar got too much he deleted the post and said that he thought the picture portrayed him as a doctor. (One jokey explanation is that he was asked to say the picture was doctored but he did not know what it meant and got it wrong. Unfortunately, when it comes to Trump the truth is often funnier than the jokes.)

No US President in history has ever attacked the Pope and risked alienating the world’s Catholics.

There will probably be electoral consequences for Trump.

Also read: Excited Pakistan should remember its limitations. Peace in West Asia is elusive

There are many possible explanations for the affection Trump has for Pakistan. But whatever the truth, Pakistan has never had it so good.

It has gone from being seen as a country that sponsors terrorism to becoming a global peacemaker that is extremely close to Washington.

It has been widely reported that Trump requested Pakistan to broker a peace deal that allowed him to get out of Iran with some dignity.

India’s non alignment

For decades India followed a policy of non alignment. Over the last few years our claims to a special relationship with America overshadowed the non aligned basis of our foreign policy.

We are now in a situation where America has spurned our advances and cosied up to our neighbour. And our greatest ally is Israel.

So, has India gained from this conflict?

I don’t think that question requires an answer.

Vir Sanghvi is a print and television journalist and talk show host. He tweets @virsanghvi. Views are personal.

(Edited by Theres Sudeep)

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