Pakistan’s militants are changing. Is the State? |
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Pakistan’s militants are changing. Is the State?
The problem for Pakistan is no longer simply that militancy has survived. It is that the militants are adapting to the way the state fights them.
The nature of Pakistan’s armed insurgencies is morphing in ever-more menacing ways, but Islamabad’s security establishment has failed to keep up. These threads may seem separate, but they are combining into one large, looming threat. Militant groups are becoming more organised, adaptable and ambitious, while Rawalpindi remains wedded to its raw power.
There are different strands to this story. Since it was formed last month, a new women’s wing of the Balochistan Liberation Front, the Karima Armed Assault Division, has claimed a series of attacks on Pakistani forces. Up north in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, jihadist factions are consolidating under the Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen. And in the direct line of fire are the paramilitary Frontier Corps (FC), under the Interior Ministry, and other local forces, which are absorbing much of the toll. All this even as tensions along the western border with Afghanistan and conflicts in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf put new demands on Pakistani troops.
Pakistan is in a predicament that it doesn’t seem to have quite grasped itself. The state has spent years getting better at using force, building intelligence networks and deploying increasingly sophisticated security capabilities. What it has been less good at recognising is that militant organisations are learning too.
Baloch insurgent groups are becoming more coordinated, using road blockades, convoy ambushes and attacks that can tie down the security forces over a wider area. In KP, Islamist factions are doing much the same in their own way, consolidating previously fragmented groups, experimenting with drones and other asymmetric tools, and putting increasing pressure on the police and other forces that operate closest to the ground. The problem for Pakistan is no longer simply that militancy has survived. It is that the militants are adapting to the way the state fights them.
Also Read: Another Baloch woman activist handed life imprisonment in Pakistan. The case against Gulzadi Baloch
A new role for women in BLF’s KAAD
In September, the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) announced a new all-female combat formation, the Karima Armed Assault Division, or KAAD, named after Baloch activist Karima Baloch. Within days, the BLF began attributing armed activity to the unit.
On 22 September, it said KAAD fighters ambushed a Pakistani military convoy near Jusak, outside Turbat in Kech district, along the CPEC highway. On 25 September, it attributed another operation to the unit in Mangocher, Kalat, where its fighters reportedly established a highway blockade, conducted snap checks and attacked military reinforcements. The BLF subsequently claimed that nine Pakistani military personnel had been killed across the two operations. These casualty figures could not be independently verified.
The formation’s activity has since expanded. South Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP) recorded KAAD-attributed roadblocks and vehicle searches on the Quetta-Karachi highway at Lakhorian in Khuzdar on 26 September and Dasht-e-Goran in Kalat on 29 September. The BLF has also claimed that KAAD, alongside its Qurban Unit, took part in a 1 October armed assault on the FC’s Gorinder post in Mashkel, Washuk, in which it claimed 18 security personnel were killed. The claim is at odds with the subsequent account of Pakistani security sources,........