Is zero the most powerful number in politics? |
In Politics by Numbers, broadcaster, author and spreadsheet stan Gavan Reilly takes a data deep dive into a political point of the week.
ECONOMICS IS SUPPOSED to work on a fundamental premise: that in any given scenario, people will act rationally to further their own interests.
But within the branch of behavioural economics, there is a number that tends to turn this assumption on its head. It’s zero: when things are free, the usual expectations of how people react tend to go out the window.
A pictorial representation of me, trying to convince The Journal’s editors that a series called ‘Politics by Numbers’ can use zero as a number. The Simpsons The Simpsons
Here’s an example: lots of young people are settling back into college life now, and plenty of part-time salespeople will be on campuses trying to promote energy drinks. If you were going about your business, and you passed someone in a quadrangle or concourse trying to sell you a can of it for €2, would you take it? How about €1.50, or €1? Maybe 50c would be enough to get you to try a random drink from a stranger? No. But if someone offered it to you for free – even if you weren’t thirsty, and had just finished a coffee – would you take it?
Zero can be a magic number when it comes to changing how people behave. And, in politics, it can sometimes send people in all sorts of unexpected directions. For proof of this, you only need to look at the last few weeks of The Traitors.
When there’s no evidence, ‘evidence’ is created
It’s easy to watch the goings-on in Slane Castle with the benefit of an omnipotent eye, knowing who is and isn’t a Traitor, and giggling as the Faithful run headfirst down blind alleys chasing wild geese and utterly convinced of their correctness. (I’m half-expecting a TD to put down some parliamentary questions inquiring about the quality of military police investigations.)
The Traitors finalists, Pauric, Carla, Anna and Diego, with host, Siobhán McSweeney. RTÉ RTÉ
But the........