Analysis: Over half of Irish adults surveyed expect Ireland to face recession this year |
AT THIS TIME of year, predictions are often offered by economists, political commentators, content creators and self-proclaimed “taste makers.”
Rather than joining this chorus, it is more instructive to turn to the crowd. Prediction markets apply the “wisdom of crowds” theory, which suggests that the collective judgement of a large, diverse group is often more accurate than individual expert opinion.
These open markets enable forecasts through financial incentives — effectively gambling on real-world events. In 2025, an estimated $44 billion was invested in prediction markets, spanning ‘who will win the 2026 World Cup’ (currently Spain), or ‘who may succeed Trump as US President in 2028′ (currently JD Vance).
Guided by this same principle, Core Research has published its PREDICT report for several years. As before, these are not predictions made by a few but the stated expectations of a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults in Ireland. Each year, this crowd anticipates both major events — such as political and economic outcomes — and everyday behaviours, including spending, socialising and digital habits.
From this analysis, three key themes emerge for the year ahead: Aspirational Affordability, Gaeilge Go Leor and Tech Tonics:
Cost of living remains the defining concern for 2026. 74% of people do not expect it to ease, and a similar proportion (71%) say affordability is personally significant, making it the single biggest issue shaping public outlook.
This pessimism is already translating into behaviour. 68% of adults say they will delay purchases until sales or price drops, while 57% believe others will do the same. Two-thirds plan to research online before buying, and among those under 40, half say they and people they know expect to buy second-hand clothing through online platforms.
Figures show the increasing cost of living i still a major concern for consumers. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo
Concerns about affordability extend well beyond day-to-day spending. With 72% unconvinced that housing affordability will improve, and ongoing unease around geopolitics and the wider economy, 52% of adults now expect Ireland to face a recession in 2026, rising to a clear majority among those aged 25–44 years old.
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Despite economists pointing to steadier growth with cautious tax........