10 Things Evident From the US-Israel War on Iran

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With the announcement of a two-week ceasefire, the fallout from the recent war by the United States and Israel on Iran is now becoming clear. Operation Midnight Hammer was intended to neutralise the Iranian nuclear threat and permanently reshape West Asia, but it failed on both counts. The attacks on Iran in 2025 followed by the recent military strikes have left the region more volatile and the US-Israel alliance more isolated.

While the bombs were still falling, the strategic map of the world changed. It did not produce a safer world or a more stable energy market. Instead, it exposed the limits of American power and the fragility of Israeli security – and India’s increasing irrelevance under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Here are 10 things that this war on Iran, and the ensuing ceasefire, have actually thrown up.

Pakistan and China as the peacemakers

The most striking shift from peace negotiations is the diplomatic vacuum filled by Beijing and Islamabad. While Washington provided the munitions for the strikes on Natanz and Fordow, China and Pakistan moved to present a credible peace plan. China used its economic weight to press Tehran for a ceasefire while Pakistan leveraged its unique ties and trust of all the major actors, as well as its geography in the conflict. These moves have effectively sidelined the US in the very region it sought to dominate, and the Global South will now increasingly look towards Beijing for stability rather than Washington.

Iran as the gatekeeper of Hormuz

In the last five weeks, Tehran has proven that its threats were not empty. During the height of the conflict, Iran demonstrated its ability to stop all commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Global oil and gas prices surged because almost all non-Iranian shipping ceased. Even with a massive US military presence in the region, the risks to commercial shipping posed by a resilient Iranian military made the passage uninsurable. Tehran has established its sole control over the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Every major economy is now aware that Iran can trigger a global recession at will.

The Islamic Republic continues in Iran

The primary goal of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu was to spark a domestic uprising that would topple the Islamic Republic in Tehran but that did not happen. While there were significant protests early in 2026, the bombing provided the rulers with a nationalist rally-around-the-flag effect. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains firmly, and perhaps more strongly, in control of the state apparatus. Hardliners have used the war to purge remaining moderate elements from the government. The Islamic Republic has not just survived but is now more militarised and entrenched than ever before.

Weak position of Arab countries

The Arab Gulf states are among the biggest losers in this war. They expected the United States to shield their infrastructure from Iranian retaliation, but that guarantee failed. Iranian missiles and drones struck energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates despite the presence of American air defence systems. These countries now realise that being a US ally makes them a target without providing guaranteed safety. The UAE is particularly worse off, after it was seen as taking a tough line against Iran, closely aligned with Israel. Now these countries are trapped between an unpredictable Iran and an unreliable US. This will trigger desperate attempts to move towards neutrality and regional reorientation.

Israel’s increasing unpopularity in the US

The war has accelerated a generational fracture in American society. Support for Israel is no longer a certainty. Most recent polling data has accelerated the trend already showing up since the war on Gaza, that favourability toward Israel has dropped to a record low among both Democratic and Republican voters, including American Jews. Younger Americans see the strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure as a violation of international law, which means that the political cost for any American president to provide unconditional military aid to Israel has risen. Israel may have won the military battles, but it has lost the war for political influence in the US.

Iran continues to possess fissile material

International Atomic Energy Agency reports from April 2026 confirm that Iran still possesses enough highly enriched uranium for several warheads. The material is stored in deep underground facilities like Isfahan which remained largely intact during the bombing. Iran has now declared that it will no longer allow any inspections. Military strikes can destroy buildings but they cannot delete knowledge, and the war has pushed the Iranian nuclear programme into the shadows where it will be even harder to monitor or stop.

Other world leaders whipsawed by Trump

The unpredictable nature of the Trump administration has left European and Asian allies in a state of constant anxiety. Decisions to strike Iran were made with little to no consultation with NATO partners. World leaders now realise that American foreign policy is driven by domestic whims of an erratic leader rather than long term strategic interests. This has led to a rush toward strategic autonomy in Europe and a search for new security arrangements in Asia. The trust that underpinned the Western alliance system after the second world war has been left broken.

The fall of the petrodollar

The war led Iran, Russia and China to quickly and organically develop a parallel financial system that operates entirely outside the reach of the US dollar. Energy trade between these nations is now conducted in Yuan. The war intended to isolate Iran has instead helped build a new economic order that threatens the dominance of the petrodollar. The 50-year-old petrodollar agreement between Washington and Riyadh expired in June 2024 without a renewal. This silence marked the end of an era where global oil trade was exclusively tied to the American greenback. This shift means that the automatic demand for dollars is evaporating, and the US can no longer rely on the global need for oil to finance its national debt. The petrodollar system has been replaced by a fragmented market where the dollar is just one of many competing tools.

Depletion of US military stocks

The US war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes have hollowed out the American stockpiles of critical military equipment. The US military burned through more than 800 Tomahawk missiles in the first four weeks of the campaign alone. Interceptor stocks are in a state of critical depletion with 30% of the global THAAD inventory already spent. This massive expenditure leaves the US vulnerable in the Pacific where a potential conflict with China would require these same systems. Bottlenecks in the production of energetic materials and propellants mean that it will take years to replenish what was lost in a few weeks of fighting. The myth of an inexhaustible American armoury has been shattered by the reality of a high intensity war against Iran.

India’s increasing irrelevance under Modi

New Delhi has been a spectator to its own marginalisation. PM Modi’s government attempted a policy of selective silence while backing Israel, but it resulted in strategic irrelevance. While China and Pakistan actively mediated, India sat on the sidelines to avoid offending either the US or Israel. This passivity has cost India its hard-won influence over decades in the Global South. The dream of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor is now dead because the route through Israel is a permanent war zone. India is no longer seen as a significant player in the security of its own extended neighbourhood, an outcome of the leader-centric spectacle pursued by PM Modi over institutionalised strategy since 2014.

To conclude, the war on Iran has accelerated the decline of American hegemony while empowering the very actors it sought to weaken. It has depleted the US military and discredited the dollar. India must realise that the world has moved into a different era, and unless it dramatically changes its foreign policy, New Delhi will find itself marginalised and irrelevant in this new global reality.

© The Wire

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