'Even Our Apple is Political': Indo-US Trade Deal, Climate Stress and Conflict Threaten Kashmir's Farmers |
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Shopian, Kashmir: Amid lines of apple trees glistening in soft sun rays, the fine lines on Shahnawaz Ahmad’s forehead are sinking deeper.
Ahmad is scrolling on his phone, reading news about the India-US trade deal. As talks resumed in April-May, to finalise the interim Indo-US trade deal announced in February 2026, farmers like Ahmad are nervously contemplating the new damage the deal is going to cause.
“Their deals don’t even count us,” says Ahmad, an apple grower in Shopian’s Imam Sahib block. Shopian’s apple orchards are spread across 26,231 hectares in the district, meanwhile around 70% to 80% of Jammu and Kashmir’s population is directly or indirectly associated with the horticulture sector.
In South Asia’s most vulnerable agricultural regions, where horticulture is more prominent than any other occupation, this unsigned trade deal is one of the many factors causing fear among farmers.
The valley accounts for nearly 75% of India’s total apple production, exporting close to 1.8 million metric tonnes every year.
Trade, trials and tribulations
In February this year, Union commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said that the interim trade agreement framework with the United States placed strong emphasis on safeguarding domestic agriculture, stating that the interests of farmers have been fully protected under the proposed pact.
Goyal said India has offered only a tightly controlled, quota-based duty concession on apples imported from the United States, while simultaneously strengthening protective barriers for domestic apple growers.
At present, apples are subjected to a higher import duty of 50% with a minimum import price of Rs 50 per kg, which restricts imports below Rs 75 per kg. But under the proposed trade pact, apples from the US will attract a minimum import price of Rs 80 per kg along with an import duty of 25%. This pricing structure effectively blocks imports of US apples priced below Rs 100 per kg, but lowers the import duty by 25%.
The US, however, remains India’s largest export destination, accounting for approximately 22% of India’s total global exports. The tariff cuts are expected to benefit sectors such as precious metals and stones (including imitation jewellery), pharmaceuticals, apparel and textiles, machinery and nuclear reactors.
Also read: Does Buying $500 Billion Worth of US Goods Serve India’s Interests?
As deals, speculations and apples continue to ripen, farmers in Kashmir say that they’re the worst affected of all the regions that produce apple.
Fears travel beyond tariffs. Farmers also contemplate competition. “Corporate farms in Washington have access to the best type of........