New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Union government has constituted a high level committee to study “demographic changes arising from illegal immigration and other abnormal reasons”, but this committee does not include a demographer. This has raised questions not only about the quality of findings that will inform policy changes, but also about bypassing census operations, as Census 2027 is already underway. The committee’s sole focus on illegal immigration also ignores real concerns like dropping fertility and an aging population that are contributing to serious demographic changes in the country. The government’s committee, instead, diverts focus, allowing numbers to be weaponised to serve the ruling party’s political agenda.

The move to form the committee also follows the BJP’s focus on “population explosion” in recent years, even though data as recent as the sixth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-6) shows India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has stabilised at 2.0, below the replacement level of 2.1. While this has raised concerns about an aging population and disparate regional population growth rates, the BJP instead has sought to continue to stoke fear and keep xenophobia alive by bringing in the bogey of “artificial demographic change” in the country.

The Wire spoke at length to demographers, population analysts, political scientists and others who analyse health and population data closely. They said that ad-hoc committees, like the one announced by the home ministry, not only disregard the ongoing Census operations, but serve a political purpose: they highlight “illegal immigration” as India’s sole demographic challenge while ignoring real concerns like dropping fertility rates and an aging population, which are contributing to serious demographic changes and risk diverting attention from securing India’s demographic dividend crucial to its development trajectory.

The committee announced by Union home minister Amit Shah on May 26 will be headed by retired Supreme Court Judge Prakash Prabhakar Naolekar. It will also comprise Census Commissioner Mritunjay Kumar Narayan, retired IAS officer Durga Shanker Mishra, retired IPS officer Balaji Srivastava and Shamika Ravi, who on the PM’s Economic Advisory Council. The Joint Secretary (Foreigners-I) in the MHA will be the Member Secretary. The committee will submit its report in a year.

“A serious study of demographic change must include demographic expertise. Demography is a specialised discipline involving fertility, mortality, migration, age structure, population projections, Census methods and survey interpretation,” said Poonam Muttreja, executive director, Population Foundation of India. “It is good that the committee includes Shamika Ravi, an economist, because population change has major implications for labour markets, public finance, regional development and social protection. But the absence of a demographer is a significant gap.”

“Without demographic expertise, there is a risk that complex population changes may be interpreted too narrowly or selectively. India’s demographic transition is shaped by multiple factors, such as fertility decline, ageing, internal migration, urbanisation, education, women’s workforce participation and regional inequalities. Besides demographers, inputs from migration scholars, statisticians, public health experts, gender experts, state governments and civil society would be useful.”

“Without demographic expertise, there is a risk that complex population changes may be interpreted too narrowly or selectively. India’s demographic transition is shaped by multiple factors, such as fertility decline, ageing, internal migration, urbanisation, education, women’s........

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