In a set of charges that are surely unprecedented in the history of diplomatic relations between friendly democratic countries, Canada has accused India of orchestrating a systematic campaign of murder, violence and intimidation against members of the Sikh community on Canadian soil, most of whom are Canadian citizens.

Worse, the Canadian government has said it has “irrefutable evidence” that the Narendra Modi government has used Indian diplomats stationed in Canada as well as the Lawrence Bishnoi criminal gang as part of this campaign. Canadian officials say they have also told India that based on intercepted conversations and messages from Indian diplomats in Canada, they believe the attacks which have taken place in Canada were authorised by Union home minister Amit Shah and a senior official of the Research and Analysis Wing.

In a nutshell, Canada accuses the Modi government of running Putin-style hit squads against its opponents in that country and – to stick to the Russian analogy for a moment – deploying a notorious criminal gang as its equivalent of the Wagner Group, i.e. a private mercenary force tasked with carrying out tricky jobs without any official footprint.

The Canadians have so far placed little to no evidence in the public domain to back up these charges and since the Indian side has used unprecedentedly strong language to deny these accusations, it is hard for us to know what or whom to believe.

While most Indians and Canadians are likely to take the default position of giving their government the benefit of doubt, it is essential that we try to unpack the story into its basic elements and see where the balance of probability lies.

So let’s start at the very beginning.

The Khalistan movement has not posed a security threat to India for more than two decades now. Punjab is peaceful; most incidents of violence there are linked to the rise of criminal gangs and their nexus with the drug trade. Remnants of the old Khalistan movement still exist in Canada, the US and Australia but their hold, even on the Sikh diaspora, is marginal.

There are no doubt Khalistani activists in these countries who still harbour the goal of an independent Sikh state, and who celebrate the terrorism which the Khalistan movement once engaged in, but whom the Indian government is unable to credibly link to acts – or even threats – of violence that would allow it to seek their extradition from these countries. For example, officially, someone like Gurpatwant Singh Pannun is wanted for terrorism in India. But the Indian government in 2022 failed to even convince Interpol that he should be put on a terror watch list.

Over the past two years, Indian diplomats have complained of close proximity demonstrations by Khalistani protestors outside the Indian high commission in Ottawa, including one where some of those who gathered shook the fence outside the high commission, put up posters and released two smoke canisters. India says Canada has not done enough to ensure the safety of Indian diplomatic missions or take action against........

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