BJP's SIR Gamble Paid off in Bengal, But it Wasn't the Only Factor Behind Its Win |
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The results of the legislative assembly elections in five Indian states have been declared. In Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal, incumbent non-Bharatiya Janata Party governments have suffered decisive defeats, while in Puducherry and Assam, the ruling BJP has been returned to power. In Assam, the BJP, led by Himanta Biswa Sarma, secured re-election with an approximately 4.6% increase in vote share compared to the previous election.
West Bengal, which had previously resisted BJP expansion, has now been captured through a combination of strategic political manoeuvres – co-optation, division, and coercion. Beyond the electoral outcome, the data suggests a deeper ideological and political shift, indicating the growing entrenchment of Hindutva-oriented politics in the region.
This development signifies the consolidation of BJP influence across eastern India. By 2024, the party had already extended its reach into Odisha through the mobilisation of Hindutva-based political narratives.
Southern India remains relatively resistant; however, in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, governance issues such as corruption, nepotism, and misuse of power have generated public dissatisfaction. The BJP appears to be gradually capitalising on these conditions, as reflected in its incremental vote share gains and its entry into the Kerala assembly with three seats.
A critical aspect of the Bengal election is the deployment of multiple institutional and procedural mechanisms to influence outcomes. These include the use of central investigative agencies (Enforcement Directorate and Central Bureau of Investigation), the Election Commission, and the controversial implementation of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), which was characterised as constitutionally questionable and disproportionately advantageous to the BJP. The judiciary was also portrayed as having played an indirect enabling role. Additionally, security forces deployed during the final phase of the election were described as exhibiting selective enforcement patterns.
Taken together, these developments can be interpreted as indicative of systemic institutional alignment in favour of the ruling party at the national level – an occurrence framed as unprecedented in post-independence India.
From a theoretical standpoint, the election is presented as an illustration of the erosion of substantive parliamentary democracy under conditions described as “fascistic,” wherein formal democratic processes persist but lack meaningful competitiveness.
Historically, despite the spread of Hindutva politics across North India during the 1990s, Bengal remained relatively insulated. This resistance is attributed to several factors: the legacy of Congress dominance, followed by decades of Left Front governance rooted in class-based politics, the influence of Bengal’s distinct cultural-religious traditions (notably Shakta practices), and the relative incompatibility of North Indian Ram-centric political narratives with regional identity.
Furthermore, although Bengal was historically associated with early forms of Hindu nationalist thought and figures such as Shyama Prasad Mukherjee, these did not translate into sustained mass political support for Hindutva in the post-independence period.
In this context, the BJP’s electoral success in West Bengal represents a significant political shift. Consequently, any comprehensive analysis of this outcome must move beyond attributing causality solely to the SIR mechanism and instead engage with broader structural, ideological, and institutional factors.
After 1967, West Bengal was governed by the Left Front continuously for 34 years. During this period,........