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New Delhi: After the special intensive revision (SIR) 2026, the final electoral roll for West Bengal, published on February 28 established an electorate of 7,04,59,284. However, according to Table 17 of the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections (2011–2036), published by the National Commission on Population under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the state’s population aged 18 and above for 2026 is projected for the same date to be 7.70 crore.

Table 17 of the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections (2011–2036).

There is thus a gap of 65,70,716 individuals between the projected adult population and the registered electorate, following a net reduction of approximately 62 lakh voters from the pre-draft stage. This contraction has breached the statistical demographic floor, so that even if every single voter currently on the roll is valid, a massive coverage gap remains.

The demographic floor is the absolute minimum baseline of expected adult citizens based on scientific projections. If the total voters in a list drops below this floor, it becomes a mathematical impossibility for the list to be accurate without a mass, unrecorded exodus or death event.

Consequently, the Elector Recorded Percentage (ERP) has declined from 101.2% in 2024 to 91.46% in 2026. An ERP of 91.46% indicates that nearly one in 10 eligible adults is absent from the electoral roll, a deviation from the national standard where the ERP typically stabilises between 98% and 100%.

This deficit aligns with the official Elector-Population (EP) ratio of 0.68 (68%) cited in the Chief Electoral Officer’s Press Note. Based on demographic breakdowns in Table 18 of the Technical Group Report, where the 0-17 age group constitutes roughly 23.4% of the population in 2026, the theoretical EP ratio should be 76.6%. This confirms an 8.6 percentage-point gap, meaning approximately 8.5% to 9% of the eligible population is unaccounted for.

Table 18 of the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections (2011–2036)

According to the Press Note, 60,06,675 electors are currently “under adjudication.” This number corresponds almost exactly to the demographic deficit – the shortfall between the number of expected (projected) adult citizens (according to the tech report) and the actual registered voters acknowledged in the final SIR numbers. This means that if the adjudication process results in the mass deletion of these voters, the roll will cover only 91.5% of the population. 

Conversely, if these 60.06 lakh voters were validated and added to the baseline, the electorate would rise to approximately 7.64 crore, bringing the ERP to a statistically standard 99.2%. This indicates that the pending voters are statistically essential to meet the minimum population baseline.

There are also questions on mortality data. The Press Note attributes the removal of 24,16,852 individuals during the enumeration (pre-draft) phase to the “Deceased” category due to the non-receipt of forms.

West Bengal’s projected crude death rate is 7.3 per 1,000 (Table 17A) and rises to 7.9 per 1,000 for 2026-30. This translates to expected annual deaths between 6,33,000 and 7.33 lakh for a total projected population of 10.05 crore.

West Bengal’s projected crude death rate is approximately 6.4 per 1,000 (interpolated from Table 17A, which projects a rise from 6.7 in 2011-2015 to 8.5 in 2031-2035), with a specific projection of 7.9 per 1,000 for the 2026-2030 period. This translates to expected annual deaths between 6,33,000 and 7.13 lakh for a total projected population of 10.05 crore.

Table 17A of the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections (2011–2036)

The identification of over 24.16 lakh deceased voters in a single revision cycle implies the simultaneous processing of between 3.4 and 3.8 years’ worth of total state deaths. And yet, electoral rolls undergo annual summary revisions specifically to delete deceased voters.

Furthermore, the revision process has altered the expected gender composition of the electorate. The final roll records a sex ratio of 956 females per 1,000 males, which is eight points lower than the projected demographic ratio of 964 (see Table 17).

Deletions indicate a skew affecting female electors. During the earlier enumeration phase (during which the ECI recorded ‘Forms Not Received’), 31 lakh women were removed from a base of 3.77 crore, compared to 28 lakh men from a base of 3.89 crore. Despite the total female electorate (3.44 crore) being smaller than the male electorate (3.60 crore), the absolute number of women deleted via Form 7 – used for deletion/objection of voter names in the electoral roll – was higher (2,77,877 women against 2,68,147 men). 

This could mean the verification criteria disproportionately penalised female voters, likely due to a lack of independent property documentation in rural areas.

The third gender electorate also contracted by 22.2%, dropping from 1,777 in October 2025 to 1,402 in the draft roll of December 2025, and finally to 1,382 in the final roll. This high rate of attrition over four months confirms the process disproportionately impacted the most vulnerable and undocumented groups.

The SIR 2026 data shows an inverse trend in the replacement rate, which is measured as the churn ratio. The roll recorded 1,88,707 additions (via Form 6, Form 6A, and Form 8) against 5,46,053 deletions (via Form 7). This results in an addition-to-deletion ratio of 1:2.9.

For every single new voter added, nearly three existing voters were removed, representing a 300% deletion rate over additions. This contradicts the positive population growth trend outlined in Table 17, which projects the state’s 18+ cohort to grow from 7.26 crore in 2021 to 7.70 crore in 2026, describing the contraction as a purge rather than a growth-oriented revision.

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