Is There Mischief Behind the ‘Miracle’ of the 2024 Andhra Pradesh Polls? |
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A close look at the 2024 Andhra Pradesh assembly elections polling data uncovers what could be a ‘mischief’ behind the ‘miracle’ which led to the ruling alliance in the sunrise state winning 164 out of the 175 assembly seats.
All the figures given here are taken from data released by the Election Commission of India, the Andhra Pradesh Chief Electoral Officer, their official notifications and press announcements and releases.
On the evening of May 13, 2024, the CEO of Andhra Pradesh announced to the media that 68.04% votes were polled as of 5 pm. He said a “large number” of people were still waiting to cast their votes and the poll percentage could further increase.
Screengrab of a report on The New Indian Express: https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/andhra-pradesh/2024/May/14/cliffhanger-in-andhra-pradesh-as-voter-turnout-may-touch-80
As per the ECI press release No. ECI/PN/82/2024 dated May 13, 2024, the voter turnout was 68.12% at 8 pm.
The Election Commission’s 8 pm press release on May 13, 2024.
Thereafter, at 11:45 pm on the same day, May 13, 2024, the voter turnout rose to 76.50%, according to ECI press release No.ECI/PN/84/2024 dated May 13, 2024.
The Election Commission’s 11.45 pm press note on May 13, 2024.
On May 17, 2024, the Andhra Pradesh polling percentage was further revised upwards to 80.66% through the release ECI/PN/89/2024, dated May 17, 2024.
The Election Commission’s press release on May 17, 2024.
The CEO of AP put the figure at 81.86% and the ECI’s Statistical report put the final figure at 81.79%. This includes EVM votes and postal ballots in both the figures.
The Election Commission’s ‘Statistical Highlights’.
If we scrutinise these figures closely, the mischief behind the AP miracle unfolds clearly.
A voter turnout of 68.04% (as per the CEO) till 5 pm on the polling day points to an average polling of 6.8% per hour. By then, 10 hours of polling had taken place. It increased to 68.12% by 8 pm. That means the increase until 8 pm, i.e. in three hours, was 0.08%.
However, the polling percentage went up to 76.50% as of 11.45 pm on the same day, the day of polling. This was an increase of 8.38% between 5 pm and 11.45pm. And the CEO declared that polling was still in progress in 3,500 booths.
The Election Commission’s 11.45 pm press note on May 13, 2024.
Screengrab from The Hindu’s report: https://www.thehindu.com/elections/andhra-pradesh-assembly/andhra-pradesh-registers-a-polling-percentage-of-8186-the-highest-so-far-in-the-country-says-chief-electoral-officer/article68178365.ece
Votes polled in these 3,500 booths after midnight are worked out to have raised the Voter Turnout (VTR) by 4.16% and brought it to 80.66% as per ECI press release No. ECI/PN/89/2024 dated May 17, 2024. This doesn’t include postal ballots.
The Election Commission’s press note on May 17, 2024.
If you convert that percentage into actual numbers, it means that in 3,500 booths, after midnight, a staggering 17,19,482 votes were cast.
That means, on an average, a little over 491 votes per booth were cast after midnight. Obviously, it cannot be exactly 491 votes in every booth. But if the number was less than 491 votes in some booths, then it had to be more than 491 votes in some other booths for the polling to average at 491 votes per booth.
The average number of votes cast between 7 am and 5 pm on the polling day in all the 46,389 booths across the state was 60.7 votes per hour. That........