US-Iran Ceasefire Under Strain as Strikes and Counter Strikes Begin |
Listen to this article:
With the latest round of strikes at Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, the ceasefire between Iran and the US may be spiralling towards a breaking point. The strikes were in response to an Iranian attack on a Cyprus-flagged commercial cargo ship that was badly damaged.
A crew of ten Indians were evacuated, but one sailor is still missing. Iran retaliated to the US attacks by launching drones and missiles at Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan and Oman. Even as the US demanded on Friday that Iran enable safe passage through the Strait, Teheran declared on Saturday that the Strait will be “closed until further notice.”
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty.
Even though the battle around Hormuz is raging, with Iran attacking ships seeking to cross it and the US attacking the Iranian positions around the Strait, the overall ceasefire is still holding. At this stage it is worth going back to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that has provided for a temporary ceasefire for 60 days in which Iran and the US are to negotiate a number of key issues. The MoU has provisions that would kick in after the 60 days of negotiations and others that were to become operational immediately.
The big point of contention is that of traffic in Hormuz. Under clause 4, the US was to withdraw its naval blockade within 30 days and Iran was to reopen Hormuz without charge for “60 days only” and demine the strait in 30 days. Further, the US was to provide waivers for the exports of Iranian crude.
Now Iran is very clearly seeking to establish its control over the Strait and Teheran is now saying that it may seek an amendment to Clause 5 of the MoU which says that the future administration of the Strait would be decided through dialogue between Oman and Iran.
But even as we approach the half-way mark for the limits of the ceasefire and negotiations by the MoU, bigger issues, such as the status of Iran’s nuclear programme have yet to be taken up, as is the question of unfreezing Iran’s assets abroad.
The ceasefire, therefore, should not be mistaken for a settlement. Rather, it is a........