Why Iceland is Increasingly Anxious About Security in the Arctic |
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When Donald Trump openly spoke about acquiring Greenland and later saw his envoy joke about Iceland becoming the United State of America’s “52nd state”, many in the Arctic stopped laughing. What sounded like bravado in Washington appeared very differently in Reykjavík. For Icelanders, these remarks revived old fears about how great powers treat small states when strategic interests matter. They know that the Arctic has become a terrain of power – routes, cables, minerals and military calculations. The US President’s posture, combined with growing rivalry in the High North, has forced Iceland to rethink its security, its alliances and even its future place in the world.
Iceland’s political culture has been shaped by both independence and vulnerability. Settled in the ninth century, it created one of the world’s earliest parliaments, the Alþingi, in 930. But its long history was also one of subordination, first to Norway and then to Denmark. Full independence came only in 1944, during the Second World War, when Denmark was under Nazi occupation. That experience left a lasting impact.
Icelanders value sovereignty deeply and remain alert to signs of external pressure. The country has no army, a population of under 4,00,000 and depends heavily on diplomacy, international law and alliances for survival. Its economy rests on fisheries, renewable energy, tourism and a highly connected digital infrastructure. Its location between North America and Europe gives it importance far beyond its size.
During the Cold War, Iceland became a central North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) outpost. The US military presence at Keflavík was justified as protection against Soviet submarines crossing the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) gap. After the Cold War, that presence receded. In 2006, US forces left the base and many Icelanders believed geopolitics had softened for good. That assumption no longer holds.
The unease in Iceland began with Trump’s repeated statements about buying Greenland, followed by remarks by US officials hinting that military options were not off the table. This altered how Iceland viewed American intentions. When Billy Long, Trump’s pick for ambassador, joked about Iceland becoming the........