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Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, scheduled for May 13-15, comes at a critical moment when the world is moving through an unusually volatile phase of global politics. Wars in West Asia and Ukraine, disruptions in maritime trade, economic uncertainty, technological rivalry and the weakening of international institutions have all created a climate of instability. In such an uncertain situation, even a diplomatic handshake between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies has significance far beyond political symbolism.

When United States (US) President Donald Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the world will be watching whether the two most powerful states in the international system can manage an increasingly dangerous rivalry without pushing the world toward wider confrontation.

The visit itself is politically significant. It is the first visit to China by a sitting US president in nine years and Trump’s first trip to Beijing since 2017. During that earlier visit, the atmosphere was dramatically different. China organised a grand diplomatic spectacle, showcasing warmth, economic cooperation and large investment announcements. At that time, there was still some hope that economic interdependence would stabilise the relationship between Washington and Beijing. Today, that optimism has disappeared. The relationship is now determined by tariffs, technological restrictions, military competition, ideological mistrust and geopolitical rivalry.

Nonetheless, the paradox is striking. Neither country trusts the other, but neither can afford a total breakdown in relations. The US and China remain interconnected economically even while they compete strategically. This contradiction defines the summit.

A major point of engagement will be the economic relationship. Trump returned to power promising to reduce American dependence on China, revive domestic manufacturing and correct what he calls “unfair” trade practices. His administration imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports, in some cases crossing 100%. These measures strikingly reduced Chinese exports to the US. Chinese exports to the US reportedly declined nearly 20% in 2025 and continued falling in early 2026.

However, the larger American goal of economically weakening China has not succeeded. Instead, Beijing adapted faster than many in Washington expected. China diversified its trade networks, strengthened ties with countries across Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, and expanded exports to alternative markets. In the first two months of 2026, Chinese exports reportedly grew by more than 21% globally. What was intended as economic pressure from Washington ended up accelerating China’s long-term strategy of reducing dependence on Western markets.

This is, perhaps, the most important background to........

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