Darbhanga (Bihar): In the Darbhanga Lok Sabha constituency, called the ‘Heart of Mithila’, and other neighbouring Lok Sabha seats of Jhanjharpur, Madhubani and Samastipur, political pundits known to gauge the mood of voters are confused and unable to predict which way the situation will turn this year.
However, many analysts, who understand the traditional political inclinations of castes and social engineering in politics, pointing to the so-called known tendency of Muslim voters and the widespread division of votes among the Yadavs, claim that the M-Y equation is still a decisive factor in many places but is no longer as effective.
This means that while the BJP has made efforts to hold sway over the upper castes, its grip over the Yadav community is believed to have strengthened. In fact, the BJP has fielded upper caste candidates on 11 of its 17 seats in Bihar, in which Gopalji Thakur (an upper caste member) from Darbhanga and Ashok Yadav from Madhubani are notable names. Meanwhile, the BJP’s ally Janata Dal (United) has fielded Rampreet Mandal from Jhanjharpur and its other ally Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) has fielded Shambhavi Chaudhary, daughter of Ashok Chaudhary, a cabinet minister in the Nitish Kumar government, from Samastipur.
Rampreet Mandal during a roadshow.
It is claimed that the BJP and its allies in Bihar are trying to garner votes of backward and deprived communities along with upper castes and Other Backward Classes (OBC) under a well-thought-out strategy.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
In such a situation, voters of 55 backward and extremely backward castes, called ‘Pachpaniya’, in Bihar, especially in the Mithila region, are expected to play a decisive role. They are also believed to have played an important role in the victory of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in the previous election.
Political pundits specialising in these areas, despite being aware of the large-scale division of votes between Muslims, upper castes and to some extent Yadavs, are unable to decipher the silence of the Pachpaniya correctly and believe that the results will depend on their voting behaviour.
However, voters no longer seem as enthusiastic as the previous election. The so-called Modi wave is missing on the surface too. In such a situation, the political meaning of people’s silence still needs to be deciphered.
Jhanjharpur
In Jhanjharpur, there is a strong anti-incumbency wave among people against their current MP and NDA candidate Rampreet Mandal. Locals allege that even though he never showed up in his constituency, he keeps issuing statements like, “When I visit the area, people do not meet me. Everyone is busy grazing buffaloes.”
Meanwhile, some people claimed that no development took place anywhere during his tenure. One such voter, Raja Rehmani from the Pamaria community, said, “We want change, but the contest is triangular and complicated.”
According to him, Suman Kumar Mahaseth of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) – part of the INDIA bloc – will votes from the BJP and JDU cadres as well.
Suman Kumar Mahaseth during a rally.
When asked why, Rehmani says that Mahaseth has switched from ‘there’ to ‘here’, and the people are fed up with the current MP. Meanwhile, in response to a question about Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate Gulab Yadav, who has made the contest triangular, he says, “It would be better if he had been the candidate of the INDIA alliance as he has a strong vote base here, and anything can happen.”
Initially, only the name of Gulab Yadav had surfaced from the INDIA alliance. Political analyst and senior journalist Prashant Kumar Mishra, who keeps a close eye on the politics of the country, especially Bihar, also confirms that there is anti-incumbency against Mandal in Jhanjharpur. “His position as a candidate is weak,” he said.
However, he added that since Mandal is the NDA candidate, he will get votes based on Modi’s popularity.
“Interestingly, INDIA alliance candidate Suman Kumar Mahaseth was once a BJP worker, and he is trying his best to cash in on that fact,” Mishra said. “But there is another angle to it – Gulab Yadav is contesting from the BSP, and he has a fair share of votes.”
“Gulab Yadav has already displayed his political clout by getting his daughter appointed as the district council president and........