Core national leaders of the “Coalition of the Willing,” an assemblage of mostly NATO states (minus the US and Russian hangers-on like Hungary and Slovakia), met in Paris last week to discuss the future of the Ukraine peace process. Prime Minister Mark Carney made the trip to underscore Canada’s role. French president Emmanuel Macron gave us a nice shout-out.

Two thundercloud shadows loomed over the meeting: the US raid on Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife, and continuing threats made by US officials, including the president, about Greenland.

Trade-offs and tight-rope walking were the order of the day.

How close is Kyiv as opposed to Caracas? The dilemma for the Coalition of the Willing is that the future of Ukraine far outweighs concerns about Venezuela. For there to be any just peace settlement for Ukraine, coalition members know that a US security guarantee and US willingness to serve as a military backstop to European pledges to enforce a peace settlement are vital. This is simply an expression of the current realities of hard power.

Keeping the US in play over a Ukraine peace deal was already complicated and fraught. Overt repudiation of American action in Venezuela potentially threatens future US engagement. On top of that, many coalition members, including Canada, did not recognize the Maduro government as legitimate following its manipulation of the national assembly and the rigging of national election outcomes. None regarded Venezuela as anything less than a failed state that provided opportunities for states like Cuba, Russia, and China to exercise influence.

Here is how Carney walked the Venezuela tightrope at a media scrum in Paris. In response to a question, he stated: “From our perspective, removal of an illegitimate, corrupt repressive government or leader, Mr. Maduro, is welcome news. It creates the possibility for democratic transition in Venezuela. We very much support that. We’re available to support that. And we urge that to happen in a peaceful transition, and that [is] the best prospect for greater prosperity of the Venezuelan people and to respect the will of the Venezuelan people.”

What this avoided, of course, was any reflection on the means used by the US to remove Maduro from power and any comment on the US president’s claims that his administration will “run Venezuela” and US oil companies will move in to capture Venezuelan oil resources.

But yes, Kyiv is closer than Caracas, even for Ottawa.

How close is Nuuk, the capital of Greenland?

In a choreographed moment, Carney met with the prime minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, on the sidelines of the Paris talks on January 6. The read-out of the meeting includes language about their mutual commitment to “enduring support for Ukraine against Russian aggression,” mention of mutual interest in Arctic security,........

© The Walrus