Gaza Ceasefire Is at Risk, Former Canadian Ambassador Warns |
On October 9, Israel and Hamas agreed to a truce backed by the Donald Trump administration. The first phase of the peace plan, which includes the exchange of hostages and prisoners and calls for humanitarian aid to be allowed back into Gaza, is nearing its end. What comes next? I reached out to Jon Allen, who served as Canada’s ambassador to Israel from 2006 to 2010 and is now a senior fellow at the Bill Graham Centre for Contemporary International History, to talk about how the ceasefire is progressing so far and what to expect in the coming weeks.
Over the past two months, Israel has violated the ceasefire almost daily, killing and injuring hundreds of Gazans. What is the risk that the ceasefire might collapse?
The ceasefire has indeed been violated by both sides and on many occasions. Over 350 Palestinians have been killed and several Israeli soldiers wounded. There are also reports of Palestinians dying of cold due to exposure in and around Rafah. That said, it is, for the most part, holding, and the Trump administration, on the one hand, and Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, on the other, are keeping Israel and Hamas’ feet to the fire in order to ensure that there is no return to a full-scale war.
In order to move onto the second phase of the peace plan, Hamas is required to disarm, and the Israel Defense Forces must begin to withdraw from Gaza. Do you foresee either side following through on these terms?
Hamas have always argued that they would not fully disarm until some form of Palestinian government was in place in Gaza and the IDF had begun to withdraw. But Israel has said that the IDF withdrawal will not happen unless Hamas is disarmed.
The Trump administration was aware of this ambiguity when it declared that both sides had agreed to the plan and is now trying to ignore this impasse and move directly to phase two, i.e., the presence of a multinational Arab/Muslim-led stabilization force, a Palestinian-led technocratic government to run day-to-day activities, and a high-level international board chaired by President Trump that would oversee the situation on the ground.
Nearly 2 million Gazans have been