‘Dystopian’ Iran war bets spark US crackdown on prediction markets |
WASHINGTON (AP) — As the United States was preparing a daring mission to rescue an airman whose fighter jet was shot down by Iran, there was money to be made.
Users on Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, could place bets on when the airman would be rescued. When Democratic Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton shared a screenshot of the activity on social media, an April 3 rescue was trading at 15 percent compared with 63% who were betting on April 4.
After Moulton posted the screenshot and blasted this “dystopian death market,” Polymarket stopped the betting, saying the market “does not meet our integrity standards.”
A former Marine who served four tours in Iraq, Moulton said he was “absolutely not satisfied with Polymarket’s response” and blamed the site for being “completely unwilling to self-regulate when it comes to betting on the lives of our service members.”
“This is war profiteering and Congress needs to step in and stop it,” he said.
The development came after The Times of Israel’s military correspondent Emanuel Fabian reported last month that Polymarket users threatened his life to try to pressure him to make changes to his coverage of an Iranian missile impact in Israel, in order to win bets made on the site, resulting in the site banning the accounts involved.
There is an ongoing search and rescue operation for a missing American service member whose plane was shot down over Iran. Their safety is unknown. They could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member. And people are betting on whether or not they'll be saved. Advertisement if(typeof rgb_remove_toi_dfp_banner != "function" || !rgb_remove_toi_dfp_banner("#336x280_Middle_1")){ window.tude = window.tude || { cmd: [] }; tude.cmd.push(function() { if(navigator.userAgent.indexOf("rgbmedia-app") > -1){ tude.setDeviceType("mobile"); } tude.refreshAdsViaDivMappings([ { divId: '336x280_Middle_1', baseDivId: '336x280_Middle_1', } ]); }); } This is… pic.twitter.com/sMuS1x6YbL — Seth Moulton (@sethmoulton) April 3, 2026
There is an ongoing search and rescue operation for a missing American service member whose plane was shot down over Iran. Their safety is unknown.
They could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member. And people are betting on whether or not they'll be saved.
This is… pic.twitter.com/sMuS1x6YbL
— Seth Moulton (@sethmoulton) April 3, 2026
A confrontation is brewing in Washington over prediction markets, the online exchanges that allow users to bet on the outcome of everything from a baseball game to when Jesus Christ will return.
In a highly polarized Congress, the need to guard against the prediction markets being used for insider trading has become a rare common ground. Members of both parties pressed the leader of a typically low-profile regulatory agency on the issue during a hearing on Thursday. The market debate is also drawing in the White House, potential presidential candidates and state leaders.
“It’s a........