As IDF and Hamas dig in, interim Gaza armistice line risks hardening into lasting border |
Nearly four months after the Gaza ceasefire took effect, the Palestinian enclave remains divided nearly in half, with Israeli forces and Hamas fighters separated by what is known as the Yellow Line, a temporary seam that may be on its way to hardening into a new de facto frontier.
The line, laid out in US President Donald Trump’s “Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict,” was presented as a provisional security boundary during the initial phase of the 20-point peace framework, pending a full, phased Israeli withdrawal once specific conditions were met, including the disarmament of the Hamas terror group.
Last month, US special envoy Steve Witkoff announced the launch of phase two of the plan, describing it as the transition “from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance and reconstruction.”
At the World Economic Forum in Davos days later, US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who works closely with Witkoff, presented plans for a “New Gaza” in which the Strip’s demilitarization paved the way for an almost-complete Israeli withdrawal and the redevelopment the entire enclave into neat blocks of residential zones, industrial areas, parks, and even a seaport and airport.
Planners had considered plotting out a “free zone… and a Hamas zone,” but had instead decided to build a vision for “catastrophic success,” he said.
But for now, those ambitions — and even much more modest ones — remain largely theoretical.
Under the framework, Israel is prohibited from occupying Gaza, and the IDF is required to “withdraw based on standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization that will be agreed upon” between the Israeli military, a prospective International Stabilization Force, the bodies overseeing Gaza’s transition via the Trump-controlled Board of Peace, and the United States.
“Practically, the IDF will progressively hand over the Gaza territory it occupies to the ISF according to an agreement they will make with the transitional authority until they are withdrawn completely from Gaza, save for a security perimeter presence that will remain until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat,” the plan outlines.
A roughly sketched map released alongside the plan marked the Yellow Line that Israeli troops retreated to once the ceasefire took hold in October, which left 47% of the enclave in the hands of Hamas. A Red Line included in the map marks the area where troops would be expected to pull back to once the ISF deploys, expanding the area outside IDF control to roughly two-thirds of the Strip.
Even in a full withdrawal scenario, Israel would still retain an approximately one-kilometer- (0.6 mile-) wide buffer zone along Gaza’s perimeter, including the Philadelphi Route on the Egyptian border, which Israel says has long served as a major smuggling corridor.
Yet, so far, only one of the plan’s benchmarks has been fulfilled: the return of all hostages held in Gaza, completed last week with the recovery of the remains of Ran Gvili.
Hamas, however, remains armed and firmly in control of most areas west of the Yellow Line.
“As long as our enemies inside Gaza are still… planning to regain their power… we are doomed to carry on staying with ground forces surrounding Gaza,” Orit Miller-Katav, a researcher at Ariel University’s Institute for Middle Eastern and Asian Studies, told The Times of Israel.
Meanwhile, the ISF has struggled to materialize. In December, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US State Department had formally approached more than 70 countries to contribute troops, funding or logistical support. While 19 reportedly expressed some willingness to assist, any actual deployment appears far off, with many........