As reports pile up of intelligence pointing to renewed Iranian missile production since the June war with Israel, analysts increasingly believe that a fresh confrontation with Iran may be approaching.

But a new war may find Israel less equipped to defend itself against Tehran’s still-potent missile threat than it was in the 12-day round of fighting in the spring.

The June conflict exposed not just the scale of Iran’s missile threat, but the limits of the defenses arrayed against it. While Tehran has moved to rebuild and adjust its missile operations, Israel and the United States remain constrained by depleted interceptor stockpiles and long production timelines — a dynamic that experts say could fundamentally alter the next bout.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was widely expected to raise concerns in his meeting with US President Donald Trump on Monday about Iran’s efforts to rearm itself, which have mounted in recent months.

According to an October CNN report citing European intelligence sources, multiple shipments of sodium perchlorate — a key ingredient used to produce the solid propellant for Iran’s mid-range conventional missiles — arrived from China at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas beginning in late September.

More recently, NBC reported that Israeli officials were concerned with Iran’s growing ballistic missile program, with one undisclosed source warning that, left unchecked, the country’s production could climb to as many as 3,000 missiles per year.

Another report has suggested that Israel believes Iran currently possesses some 2,000 ballistic missiles, roughly the same number it had on the eve of the 12-day war. Analysts are said to have concluded that the damage Israel inflicted on Iran’s ballistic missile program during the conflict with the Islamic Republic was “less severe” than initially assessed.

Iran itself has sent mixed signals about the state of its missile program. A news outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — which oversees the country’s ballistic missile development — reported last week that missile tests had been conducted nationwide, only for Iran’s state broadcaster to swiftly deny that any tests had taken place.

Iran on Monday denounced the reports as a “psychological operation” against Tehran, emphasizing it was fully prepared to defend itself, and warning renewed aggression would “result in harsher consequences” for Israel.

Yet while attention has centered on Iran’s missile production, experts warn the more consequential imbalance may be on the defensive side of the equation.

In particular, the availability of American missile defenses — especially US-operated Terminal High Altitude Area Defense  (THAAD) interceptors — has emerged as a potentially critical limitation. During the last Israel-Iran exchange, US interceptor stockpiles played an outsized role in knocking down projectiles and were significantly depleted, raising doubts about whether Israel could again rely on the same level of American air-defense support.

“It’s a very real concern,” said Ari Cicurel, associate director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA). “Both Israel and the US used an immense amount of their interceptor stockpiles… we are still very far behind in replenishing to get back to what we had before.”

According to reports published several weeks after the war, American forces were said to have fired between 100 and 150 THAAD missiles — each costing an estimated $12.7 million — while helping to shoot down some 500 missiles fired by........

© The Times of Israel