With both Israel and the US eating into stockpiles of interceptors to swat away the steady stream of missiles, rockets and drones being launched by Iran and Hezbollah, speculation has grown regarding whether supplies could be running low.

Israeli officials have attempted to deflect and experts indicate that there is little cause for concern, despite the length of time it typically takes to produce new interceptor missiles.

Due to operational security, the actual size of remaining stocks remains a closely guarded secret.

On Saturday, a report by US news site Semafor claimed that Israel informed the US last week that it is running “critically low” on ballistic missile interceptors, citing American officials familiar with the matter.

That same day, the Israeli government approved the transfer of an additional NIS 2.6 billion (around $826 million) in budget funds to the Defense Ministry for “urgent and essential defense procurement.”

An earlier report by The Washington Post alleging that the US was transferring parts of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system from South Korea to the Middle East further fueled speculation.

However, according to sources cited in the piece, the move was a precautionary measure and did not signify an immediate shortage of interceptors in the region.

The attention is a byproduct of the role interceptors play as the backbone of Israel’s defense strategy. With the primary threat from Iran and its proxies in the region coming by air in the form of missiles, rockets and drones, Israel relies heavily on its multi-tiered air defense array to meet the incoming projectile in mid-air, blowing it up before it can strike its destination.

Without interceptors to throw at the threat, the hundreds of missiles and rockets launched at Israel since the war broke out on February 28 would have likely wreaked widespread devastation, with the only protection coming from reinforced safe rooms and bomb shelters.

Rumors that interceptor stockpiles in the region were running low had already been circulating before Israel launched Operation Roaring Lion on February 28, targeting Iranian regime leadership and military infrastructure.

In the opening days of the war, Tal Inbar, a veteran expert on aviation policy, space and missile systems, told The Times of Israel that Jerusalem and Washington likely factored interceptor availability into their planning before initiating the campaign.

“I believe that the amount of interceptor missiles was something that was taken into consideration in both the US and Israel,” he said. “The operational plans took into account the length of the campaign and [Israel and the US’s] capabilities of not just intercepting missiles, but also preventing strikes by hitting locations in Iran.”

That assessment appears to align with Israel’s official position. On Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces pushed back against reports suggesting the country was running low on air defense interceptors.

An Israeli military official told reporters that the IDF did not have an interceptor shortage. “We prepared for a prolonged conflict. We are monitoring the situation at all times,” the official said.

Yinon Yavor, head of the School of Mechanical Engineering at Afeka College and head of the Afeka Center for Energetic Materials, suggested that the anonymous sources behind the claims may be motivated by a desire to portray stockpiles as running low.

“I think there is something else behind it — perhaps someone who wants to shorten the war,” he told The Times of Israel.

And even if the rumors bore any truth, Yavor explained that Israel would still not be necessarily left empty-handed.

“These are defensive missiles,” he noted, meaning that European allies with their own interceptor stockpiles, notably Germany, would be more likely to assist Israel in replenishing its own arsenal. “It’s not like you’re asking them for a missile that will hit Tehran… you’re asking them for missiles that will save civilians.”

The complexities of missile defense

Israel’s Arrow 3 missile defense is currently its most advanced long-range defense system, meant to intercept ballistic missiles — like the type fired from Iran — while they are still outside of the Earth’s atmosphere.

Other aerial defense systems, such as the Iron Dome and David’s Sling, are designed to intercept shorter-range projectiles, including rockets from Hezbollah in Lebanon, meaning that the Iranian proxy’s participation in the ongoing fighting does not divert resources needed against Iran’s missile attacks.

Ballistic missiles, which fly along a preset ballistic path, are generally considered more difficult to intercept than other projectiles.

Writing for the Institute for National Security Studies, senior researcher Yehoshua Kalisky explained that a ballistic missile consists of an engine, a fuel-carrying body, sensors and a warhead.

The engine propels the missile at a high speed and separates once its fuel is exhausted. The remaining body continues along a ballistic trajectory outside the atmosphere before descending toward its target. During this phase, it may deploy decoys, a maneuverable warhead, or cluster munitions, making precise interception extremely difficult.

For missiles launched toward Israel from places like Iran or Yemen, interceptions ideally take place outside the atmosphere and far from Israeli airspace so that any debris falls outside of Israeli territory.

“To prevent collateral damage or harm caused by a missed interception, the missile must be intercepted far from its target,” Kalisky wrote.

Missiles equipped with cluster warheads, which have been used extensively during the ongoing fighting, add another layer of complexity to the interception challenge. Ideally, the missiles will be hit before the cluster bombs deploy, sending dozens of smaller bomblets hurtling randomly toward the earth.

“These pose problems for interceptors in terms of needing to intercept further away,” Ari Cicurel, associate director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, told The Times of Israel. He explained that cluster missiles typically release their munitions at the time they enter the atmosphere.

While the cluster impacts are less damaging, they still take a toll on interceptor stock, he noted.

Stockpile concerns resurface in war

This is not the first time questions about Israel’s interceptor stockpiles have surfaced during a conflict with Iran.

Near identical reports on Israel’s alleged depleted interceptor stockpile emerged from international media outlets in the June 2025 war — reports that the IDF also denied.

It is not possible to independently verify claims in news reports or by the IDF regarding the status of interceptor missiles, as Israel generally does not publicly comment on matters related to the availability of munitions.

Nonetheless, its supply of interceptors must be finite and is limited by the lead time involved in building more missiles.

In December 2025, the Defense Ministry signed a deal worth billions of shekels with the Israel Aerospace Industries for the defense firm to expand its production of Arrow 3 interceptor missiles.

“In any war, the stockpile is going to be depleted,” said Cicurel.

During that conflict, Iran launched large barrages of missiles at Israel in waves designed to overwhelm air defenses, as opposed to the smaller volleys seen in the current conflict.

Even with a high interception rate, each incoming missile often requires multiple interceptors to ensure a successful shootdown, meaning defensive inventories can be consumed far faster than expected.

A single Arrow 3 missile has an estimated price tag of $2-3 million and takes a few months to produce, though the exact time frame has not been made public by Israel due to security concerns.

“[Israel] had eight months to restock themselves, so there has been time to build on their arsenal,” Yavor said. “I think [Israel] had enough time and enough manufacturing capabilities to do so.”

The US’s THAAD interceptors were also said to have been depleted during June’s 12-day war. According to reports published several weeks after the conflict, American forces were said to have fired between 100 and 150 THAAD missiles — each costing an estimated $12.7 million — while helping to shoot down some 500 missiles fired by Iran.

The total reportedly expended roughly a quarter of the US THAAD interceptor stockpile over the course of the war.

Like Israel, the strain on US inventories also seemingly pushed Washington to accelerate efforts to rebuild its missile stockpiles. Last year, the US launched the Munitions Acceleration Council, which the Defense Department said “has begun pursuing increased production,” reflecting growing concern that current manufacturing rates are poorly suited to modern, missile-heavy conflicts.

A recent report by The Washington Post, citing three unnamed people familiar with the matter, said that the US is potentially “days away” from being forced to start conserving its air defenses.

However, top US military officials have publicly argued otherwise. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said in a briefing that “we have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense.”

The pressure on interceptor inventories is reportedly being felt by other countries, not just the US and Israel.

According to The Economist, Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — which have also been targeted by Iranian missile strikes since the war erupted on February 28 — appear to be drawing down their interceptor stockpiles as well.

Iran adapts to a longer war

While Israel is knocking down missiles, it is also attempting to ease the threat by hitting missiles and launchers before they can be fired.

Experts have described the conflict as a race, with Israel and the US rushing to neutralize Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones before interceptor stocks run too low.

After weeks of heavy airstrikes, Cicurel described the state of Iran’s ballistic missile stocks as “not good.”

“The ballistic missile stockpile… will certainly be down severely, just based on how much they fired alongside the amount of destruction that US and Israeli strikes have been able to cause,” he said.

He noted that this round of fighting has been more effective in targeting Iran’s missile production sites than in June, meaning that the Islamic Republic is unable to restock itself during the course of the war.

Iran also appears to be shifting its tactics as it adapts to mounting losses and prepares for a longer conflict. That means conserving missiles but still launching enough to keep Israelis off balance while, they hope, burning through interceptors.

Cicurel described the tactic as a form of “psychological war.”

“We’ve seen Iran’s fire go down significantly as they shifted from trying to launch larger attacks to really gearing up for a longer war,” he explained, “firing fewer missiles in each attack, but more attacks throughout the day.”

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