The political arena in Israel is increasingly settling into an election campaign defined by two blocs, with almost no crossover between them. One bloc, currently in power, is comprised of right-wing and religious parties aligned behind Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The other is made up of a disparate array of Zionist parties chiefly united by the desire to replace the prime minister — essentially the “change bloc” that held power under former prime minister Naftali Bennett and current Opposition Leader Yair Lapid from 2021 to 2022.

Dogmatism, stubbornness and radicalization have driven most parties to ensconce themselves in one of the two camps, fueling mutual aversion to interaction. What room there is for power shifts or political horse trading is within the blocs rather than between them.

Weekly polls reflect this stagnation repeatedly, along with the notion that both camps are roughly evenly matched, meaning neither side can hope to woo support from across the aisle to break the deadlock and find enough seats to form a governing coalition after the next election, currently scheduled for October.

A deadlock would allow Netanyahu to remain in office even after the elections – heading an interim government through successive rounds of votes until one side or the other finds a way to break through.

Israel is a long way from the early 1990s, when self-declared Likud supporters broke rank to vote for Yitzhak Rabin, helping his Labor party scoop up 44 Knesset seats. Nowadays, Likud supporters looking to escape Netanyahu will still remain within the right-religious bloc, or polls would show the center-left snapping up 61 seats and more.

The blocs are consolidating within themselves. No right-wing figure will join the change bloc alongside left-wing figures such as The Democrats leader Yair Golan and MK Mansour Abbas, the Islamist Ra’am leader whose willingness to play coalition politics made him a lightning rod.

And no one from the center-left will start joining hands with Netanyahu loyalists or be willing to support far-right National Religious party leader Bezalel Smotrich.

There is one wildcard: former prime minister Naftali Bennett, who has formed a new party to stage a political comeback. Polls show him getting over 20 seats, enough to lead the charge against Netanyahu. But those backing him now are likely just idling undecideds who have yet to figure out where they actually want to park their........

© The Times of Israel