US President Donald Trump took the world — including Israel, it seems — by surprise when he announced on Monday that his administration had begun “very good” talks with Iran on ending the US-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic.

After three weeks of relentless airstrikes targeting top regime figures and key military infrastructure — and just a day after delivering a deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz — the president reversed course, saying he was holding off on strikes on Iran’s major energy infrastructure while talks continued.

The move sparked concern in Jerusalem that the president would force a premature halt to the fighting — and not without precedent.

But this week’s talks may not be about reaching a deal at all.

While Washington is likely open to accepting an agreement that extracts the major concessions it is demanding from Iran, the negotiations could well serve a broader strategic purpose: easing economic pressure and destabilizing the regime, all while buying time to prepare for a more decisive escalation.

In the past year, Trump has twice closed swift deals to halt military campaigns, catching Israel off guard.

Last May, Trump reached a surprise deal with the Houthis in Yemen that effectively restored the status quo in the Red Sea that existed before a seven-week US bombing campaign. The agreement — which reportedly came with no prior warning to Jerusalem — ended attacks on US vessels, which had anyway ceased, but allowed the Houthis to keep shooting at Israel and others using the waterway.

And at the end of Israel’s 12-day war with Iran last June, which the US ultimately joined, Jerusalem briefly promised to “forcefully strike the heart of Tehran” in reaction to an Iranian missile attack that defied a fresh ceasefire brokered by Trump. The president’s response was to publicly berate Israel and force it to turn its planes around.

With the current Iran war again weighing on Trump’s political prospects and economic agenda, his domestic allies have been pushing for an exit strategy.

Trump’s approval rating fell in recent days to its lowest point since he returned to the White House, hit by the surge in fuel prices caused by Iran’s efforts to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for oil, and general disapproval of the war. Americans’ views on Trump have soured significantly with regard to his stewardship of the economy and the cost of living.

At the same time, key US partners in the Middle East, such as Turkey, have stepped up efforts to find a diplomatic way out of the fighting, creating an offramp that could work........

© The Times of Israel