After backing Iran with Israel strike, Houthis avoid further escalation, for now |
A month into the US-Israeli war with the Islamic Republic, one Iran-backed armed group that had been noticeably absent from the fighting finally joined the fray.
On Saturday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired a ballistic missile at what they called “sensitive Israeli military sites” in southern Israel. Another cruise missile was launched from Yemen, followed by a suspected drone attack, later in the day, according to the IDF.
Whether these attacks — all successfully intercepted — marked a symbolic show of support for Iran or the opening of a new front in the war remains unclear. As Washington’s ceasefire talks with Iran continue, the Houthis themselves are likely still calibrating.
While the rebel group is not a serious threat to Israel, its military capabilities and geographic position give it the ability to imitate what its backers in Tehran have done. Iran threw the global economy into panic by largely blocking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis can do the same in the Red Sea, another key chokepoint.
The Houthis can also strike Gulf energy infrastructure, potentially widening the war beyond its current scope and triggering harsh responses from the US and Arab allies.
Fearing such retaliation, the Houthis appear to have chosen a calculated signal of alignment with Iran that stops short of triggering full escalation, and, barring extreme circumstances, are unlikely to shift direction.
Unlike Iran’s Shiite allies in Lebanon and Iraq, who quickly joined the regional war that began on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Tehran, the Houthis waited until this weekend to act — a delay that reflects both domestic constraints and strategic self-interest.
Unlike Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis are not a full-blown Iranian proxy, and “they operate based on cost-benefit calculations,” said Nachum Shiloh, a research fellow at Tel Aviv University’s Dayan Center specializing in Yemen and the Gulf states.
They also represent a different strain of Shia Islam from the Islamic Republic’s.
“The Houthis are different — they are Zaidi Shiites who have existed in a state-like form for about a thousand years. They take Iranian strategic considerations into account. But their own strategic calculations come first,” Shiloh said.
Those calculations include domestic constraints.
“This war is about coming out in support of Iran, and [that] doesn’t generate the same level of domestic support that the Houthis’ involvement in the Gaza war did,” said Allison Minor, former US deputy special envoy for Yemen and now director of the Project for Middle East Integration at the Atlantic Council.
The Houthis — whose slogan calls for “Death to America, Death to Israel, [and] a Curse on the Jews” — first started attacking Israel and Red Sea shipping in November 2023, saying the attacks were in support of Hamas during Israel’s war against the terror group in Gaza.
In March 2025, after the Houthis targeted over........