Two days after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised that “we are going to change the Middle East.”

That phrase was used by Netanyahu repeatedly over the next two and a half years, as Israel went to war against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

“We turned Israel into a regional power that deters and defeats its enemies,” Netanyahu boasted in March, at the height of the US-Israeli campaign against Tehran.

At the time, the Iran war looked like the successful culmination of Israel’s military response to October 7, 2023. It had delivered painful blows to Hamas and Hezbollah, and was now fighting alongside the most powerful military in history to topple the Iranian regime and permanently end the threat posed by the Iranian axis.

The defeat of Israel’s enemies had finally arrived, it seemed.

Now things look very different. The Islamic Republic’s grasp on power seems more secure than ever, Israel has lost the legitimacy to respond to direct Hezbollah attacks on its territory, and US President Donald Trump is about to sign a deal with Iran that achieves none of the goals stated by either the US or Israel at the outset of the war on February 28.

The post-October 7 wars, which came with expectations and promises of total victory, are over, as are its illusions. Palestinians are not going to leave Gaza. Hamas won’t disarm, nor will Hezbollah. Trump is not going to return to war in Iran, and Tehran can now threaten to withdraw from a deal to get Trump to stop any major Israeli operation against Hamas or Hezbollah.

Threats haven’t disappeared, and enemies haven’t been defeated. Israel will continue to face threats from the same adversaries, and will have to fight wars against them some time in the future, whatever this or subsequent American presidents have to say.

The Middle East has certainly changed, and many of Israel’s enemies are indeed weakened. But many of the changes — with Iran’s emboldening and Trump’s imposed restrictions on Israel most emphatically at the forefront — are not in Israel’s favor.

In this emerging and challenging reality, likely shaped by a new US-Iran deal, Jerusalem will also have to find new ways to act and new means of achieving goals beyond military force.

It is today painfully obvious that this is not the outcome Israel wanted, nor is it the outcome other US allies in the region expected, when the two allies went to war a little over 15 weeks ago.

Trump and his staff made explicit promises at the outset of the war.

“Our objectives are clear,” said Trump on March 2. “First, we’re destroying Iran’s missile capabilities… Second, we’re annihilating their navy… Third, we’re ensuring that the world’s number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon… And finally, we’re ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said repeatedly that dealing with Iran’s missile program and its proxies was a stated objective of the operation.

The exact details of the MOU remain unclear, but in no version leaked to the media does the agreement touch on ballistic missiles or Iran’s support for terrorist groups.

It will, rather, provide for an end to US military operations and blockade in exchange for Iran re-opening the Strait of Hormuz and agreeing to talk about its nuclear program, while enjoying some sanctions relief. Trump will get reduced prices at the gas pump ahead of the midterms. The US will not have definitively blocked Tehran’s path to the bomb, nor will it have removed Iran’s 440-kilogram stockpile of highly-enriched uranium; those central issues have been set aside for 60-days of post-MOU negotiations, in which Iran can be reliably expected to resist all substantive concessions.

Not exactly a case of Iran bending to US military might or Trump’s........

© The Times of Israel