Gulf states opposed war with Iran. Most are now pushing to keep the fight going |
WASHINGTON — While Gulf countries cautioned US President Donald Trump not to launch a war against Iran in the runup to the conflict, most of them are now urging Washington to continue striking the regime, four senior officials representing different Gulf capitals told The Times of Israel.
There is still some frustration with the way the US and Israel are prosecuting the war, but there is a desire among Gulf countries — particularly the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar — to ensure that Iran comes out of this war with its military power sufficiently degraded to cease posing a threat to them, said the four senior officials, speaking to The Times of Israel last week on condition of anonymity.
While Trump has repeatedly expressed surprise over Iran’s decision to retaliate against its neighbors, including by targeting civilian sites, one of the officials said that Gulf countries largely anticipated the response and that this was one of the reasons they opposed the US-Israeli launch of the war.
“There was also serious doubt that [military strikes] would have the desired effect of ending Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region,” the senior Gulf diplomat said, explaining that the consensus in the region had been that continued pursuit of a diplomatic off-ramp was a surer way to maintain security in the Gulf.
But the US and Israel spurned that view, launching operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, respectively, on the grounds that only preemptive military action could address Iran’s nuclear aspirations and its rapidly expanding ballistic missile capabilities.
Iran responded by not only targeting those attacking it, but also by launching repeated strikes against all six Gulf Cooperation Council countries — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The attacks have killed several people and disrupted oil and gas production as well as tourism, both of which are important economic lifelines for the region.
Iran is thought to have calculated that the strikes would lead to the Gulf pressuring Trump for a ceasefire. Instead, the move seems to have had the opposite effect, with Gulf countries experiencing firsthand the danger inherent in allowing Iran to remain an armed regional menace.
“Ending the war with Iran still in possession of the tools it is currently using to target the GCC would be a strategic disaster,” a second Gulf official said.
Not all GCC countries back that view, though. Multiple Gulf officials pointed to Oman as the clearest exception to the idea that the war should continue.
“The national interests of both Iran and America lie in the earliest possible end to hostilities,” Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi wrote in The Economist last week.
The countries that think otherwise are also not all equally committed to the idea that fighting should go on. Two of the Gulf officials who spoke to The Times of Israel noted that it is most strongly felt in the UAE, while other countries are more hesitant regarding how long the military campaign should last.
Still, recognition of the need to further degrade Iran’s military capabilities is widespread enough that multiple GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are considering joining the US and Israeli strikes against Iran, the second Gulf official said.
All four officials agreed that the US and Israeli strikes were unlikely to bring down Iran’s regime. However, they differed on how much the Islamic Republic’s military needed to be degraded to void Tehran’s ability to pose a threat.
“We want this war to end with Iran stripped of the capabilities to harm its neighbors,” the third Gulf official said.
The second Gulf official was more specific, insisting that the war continue until Iran’s missile and drone manufacturing sites are destroyed.
He acknowledged that Iran will still have the know-how to restock its arsenal, but insisted that “generational damage” would be sufficient.
“Iran is looking for a new strategic reality after the war where the US and Israel think twice about attacking it again,” the official said, adding that Gulf states want Iran to think twice before attacking them again.
The fourth Gulf official was less optimistic that Iran could be sufficiently deterred and expressed concern about the war dragging on “to a point where there are diminishing returns.”
He speculated that Gulf countries will double down on anti-drone and air defense technology after the war, so they are better prepared to handle Iranian attacks in the future, indicating a belief that the threat would likely remain.
All four officials agreed that the primary target of Gulf anger is Iran, for using the American and Israeli strikes as an excuse to attack them, rather than the US and Israel for launching the war.
However, the fourth Gulf official acknowledged that the “inadequate” American planning for Iran’s retaliation will lead to his country diversifying its security partners in the future, rather than “overly relying on the US.”
While both the UAE and Bahrain have indicated that the war will help tighten ties with Israel, the Gulf officials largely rejected speculation that it would also lead to new Arab normalization deals under the Abraham Accords.
The first Gulf official expressed anger over Israel’s campaign against the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon, which began striking Israel in response to the attacks on its patron Iran. They noted that Israel’s air and ground offensive has led to civilians being harmed and argued that Lebanon’s Gulf-backed government was also being hurt.
“The region hasn’t forgotten Gaza,” the official said. “Whatever goodwill may have been built over the degrading of Iran is being wasted over what Israel is doing in Lebanon.”
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