After surviving US-Israeli strikes, Iran regime may be divided over terms for ending war |
AP — After US-Israeli bombardment eliminated Iran’s supreme leader and much of its top echelons, the Islamic Republic’s leadership didn’t fall apart — but negotiations to end the war offer a new test.
For decades, the supreme leader successfully managed several powerful factions, bringing to heel those who challenged his authority while listening to rival opinions. It’s now unclear who wields that kind of authority over the collection of civilian figures and powerful generals from the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who appear to be in charge.
They have found unity — for now — by taking a tough line. But disagreements over how much to concede in negotiations with the United States could reveal fault lines, as Pakistani mediators try to host a new round of talks this week.
A committee now appears to be in charge
In the past, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was able to impose his will on the Islamic Republic’s disparate power centers. After Israeli strikes killed him on the first day of the war, his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded him.
But doubts continue to swirl over the younger Khamenei’s role after reports he was wounded in the strikes. Still in hiding, he has not appeared in public since becoming supreme leader and how he gives orders to top leaders is a mystery.
At the center of power now is a politburo-like body known as the Supreme National Security Council, which includes Iran’s top civilian and military officials. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliament speaker and a veteran insider with strong contacts on all sides, has emerged as its face and the chief negotiator with the US.
The late Khamenei began giving more authority to the council before his death, but the war has consolidated its power.
The council contains a range of political opinions and often acute rivalries. A political rival of Ghalibaf and uncompromising opponent of the US, Saeed Jalili, represents the supreme leader on the council, while the body’s nominal head is reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Hard-liner members include the IRGC’s new chief commander, Ahmad Vahidi, and the council’s new secretary, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, also a commander in the IRGC.
But Israel’s strategy of eliminating top leaders points to a misreading of how the Islamic Republic works, experts say.
Iran’s leadership survived “precisely because there are multiple power centers with overlapping........