Syria: The Battlefield Between Intentions and Interests — Who Has Won, and Who Will Rule After the Collapse of the Shiite Axis?

The campaign in Syria is no longer merely a struggle over regime change; it is a test of survival for an entire region. In recent years, Israel and the West have struck deep at Iran and Hezbollah’s spheres of influence in Syria. These blows significantly weakened the “Axis of Resistance,” constraining its freedom of action across the country. Monitoring by Western research institutes indicates that the structural and organic damage to the Shiite axis since October 7 is substantial—but not fatal. Its operational capacity has diminished, yet the remnants of its power remain dangerous.

Those who have truly benefited from this partial collapse are local Sunni factions—Syrian and Iraqi alike—who have gained a certain political and security breathing room to accelerate their own status, whether through political networking or by reinforcing local power mechanisms. Israel fully recognizes this interesting consequence: more and more Sunni centers are consolidating their internal independence, not necessarily in a pro-Israeli manner, but rather as a form of insulation from Iranian Shiism.

And where does Turkey stand? Ankara’s interests are crystal clear and enduring: preventing the rise of a strong Kurdish entity along its border, fortifying Turkish zones of influence in northern Syria, and maintaining leverage toward Damascus. The Turkish parliament recently extended authorization for military operations in Syria—an unmistakable signal of Turkey’s long-term commitment to sustained military and political involvement. This is not a........

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