Syria and Lebanon have become two pivotal arenas for understanding the future trajectory of the Middle East. Both are fractured states—economically, socially, and politically—with only partial sovereignty. Both now function as strategic chessboards for regional and global powers. The question is no longer whether they will change, but in which direction: prolonged chaos, outright collapse, or a slow, forced process of normalization.

Syria: A Regime That Survived—But Lost the State

The Assad regime has survived the civil war, but at an enormous cost. Syria in 2025 is no longer a sovereign state in the classical sense. It is fragmented into spheres of influence—Russian, Iranian, Turkish, Kurdish, and American—while Damascus effectively controls only parts of the country. The economy lies in ruins, the military is exhausted, and much of the population lives in extreme poverty.

Iran sought to transform Syria into a strategic rear base against Israel, but its ambitions have suffered sustained and........

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