The assassination of Khamenei was a serious mistake from every angle. It looks like a great achievement of day one that both Trump and Netanyahu can present, but in reality it is a double-edged sword.

Khamenei is 87 years old. He is undoubtedly the head of a snake responsible for enormous amounts of terrorism for almost 40 years. However, he is a symbol for Iranians, and they have been actively preparing, with or without Israel’s threats, for a succession after Khamenei. So this is not what will bring down the regime.

A foreign attack unites citizens, even those who oppose the regime, against the enemy. It is no coincidence that both Trump and Netanyahu are calling on the Iranian public to rise up — because that is apparently the only chance to topple the regime. But this won’t bring it down. The assassination of Khamenei unites more Iranians than it encourages them to pursue a regime change.

The Shia will not forget the assassination of their leader of 39 years. The war against Israel and the US will continue for many years, even if this current round ends soon. There is a Persian proverb (with many versions across different Muslim cultures): اگر بعد از صد سال انتقام بگیری، هنوز زود است — “If you take revenge after a hundred years, it is still too early.”

American public opinion is, in an unprecedented way, against Israel and against war. From both left and right. They are not willing to risk American soldiers’ lives or waste billions of dollars, and the narrative is that this serves only Israel’s interests.

American public opinion toward Israel is at a low we’ve never seen before, and now with the reality that we dragged the US into a war, sentiment towards Israel will get even worse.

From Netanyahu’s perspective, he wants to go to elections being able to present the narrative: “I eliminated Khamenei, Nasrallah, Sinwar, and Assad.” The question of timing is how much damage Israel will absorb from this war. And in my estimation, it is significant.

If elections are held in the coming months (yes – if), unfortunately Netanyahu will likely win with this message. Few of his supporters still care about October 7th. 

Israel and the current American administration did not think about the consequences. The Iranian regime is not stupid. It is currently softening Israel’s defense systems and holding back missiles for the days ahead. As they identify that the defense array is depleting, as happened in the previous round, their strikes will become more precise and more severe.

Israel and the US’s target bank is not infinite. For all practical purposes, they’ve likely collected targets for a few days. The Iranian regime will survive those days. And then it will strike Israel hard. They have at minimum two thousand ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel, so the damage will be heavy.

Israel will sadly reach, once again, a point where it really needs a ceasefire and will pressure the US to impose one — as happened in the final days of the 12-day war. This time, the Iranians will not rush to conserve weapons, having effectively suffered the greatest blow — the assassination of the Ayatollah. Then the question becomes what Trump is capable of and willing to do to stop the fighting. It is certain that he does not have the leverage he had 8 months ago.

With this move, Trump has made himself a personal target for millions of Muslims, and in my estimation, attempts will be made to harm him personally during his term. As well as American targets around the world.

After Trump’s departure, whether at the natural end of his term or otherwise (he has at most 3 more years), Israel faces serious trouble across all wings of the American political system, as well as American public opinion. Without US backing (the nature of which is unclear after Trump leaves), Israel is in serious trouble globally and regionally. The US is Israel’s central source of power.

Amongst our leaders, no one thinks 100 years ahead. Not even 10 or 5 years ahead. In fact, I don’t think Netanyahu even looks a year ahead. He has no idea what the end game of this war is. This is a pure gamble. 

Democratic Israel is sinking deeper and deeper into the realms of religious madness (where many rabbis are now declaring this is the war that will bring the Messiah) and perhaps all we can do is hope the Messiah comes. Because unfortunately, I don’t see anything good coming out of this war.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)