Is the US About to Attack Iran? |
Last April, the US and Iran agreed on a 60-day window for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile arsenal, and its support for murderous regional proxies including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Yemen’s Houthis. The US put a secret proposal on the table as time was running out, and tried again even as bombing began in June – offering full sanctions relief in exchange for “replacement” of enrichment facilities and ending support for proxies. The proposal said nothing about ballistic missiles.
Iran rejected the offer. Israel – at first alone, then joined by the US – destroyed Iran’s known nuclear facilities as well as its “brain trust” of top nuclear scientists and military leaders, severely degraded its missile capacity, and largely eliminated its air defenses. After 12 days, perhaps with the Nobel Prize committee in mind, Trump abruptly demanded an end to hostilities. Israel duly complied.
Last spring’s plotline says a lot about the motivations and constraints that will determine how the current tensions play out. For Trump, nothing is more sacred than a win. The geopolitical priorities recently laid out in his administration’s National Security Strategy are background noise; actual decisions aim for boastworthy projections of strength. It’s not merely ego; Trump exerts a personal degree of control over the Republican Party not seen since Theodore Roosevelt. While only 42% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents think Trump acts ethically in office, 94% see him as a strong and........