This week, an old quote purported to be from theoretical physicist Albert Einstein, came to mind in the face of new drone technology being used by Hezbollah against Israel for which there seems to be no defense.  Einstein is reported to have said:  “I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”   More about that later.

According to a report in Calcalist, the online tech newsletter of Ha’aretz, the local defense establishment here is working to develop a new technological response to the threat posed by explosive drones that have targeted IDF soldiers in recent weeks along the new security zone in southern Lebanon.

These are reported to be fast-moving drones, operated from distances of 10-15 kilometers (i.e. 6-9 miles) from the target, and guided by optical fiber physically connected to them, making it effectively impossible to disrupt or neutralize them using conventional jamming systems and electronic warfare tools typically used against wireless drones.

The solution currently being pursued by development agencies is also expected to rely on blocking and jamming technologies, despite the inherent challenges posed by fiber-optic guidance. Defense officials told Calcalist that, if successful, the effort could provide a meaningful response to the expanding drone threat. The initiative involves IDF development units, the Defense Ministry, defense contractors, and startup companies.

These are the kinds of military developments that keep the defense planners up at night, fearing that we are approaching the point where there will be no defense against certain weaponry.   When that happens the predicted apocalypse will begin as some (not necessarily large) nations destroy other (often much larger nations) with less expensive weapons for which there is no current defense.

To be sure, the emergence of this threat reflects a significant operational gap. The widespread use of fiber-optic drones echoes earlier failures in preparing for drone warfare at the outset of the October 7th massacre by Hamas. Both then and now, Israeli defense authorities were aware of the threat and its use in other arenas, particularly in the Russia-Ukraine war, but unexplainedly, preparations here seem to have been incomplete.

The most worrisome aspect of all of this, beyond the resulting terrible loss of combatant’s lives, is that this will become the norm in global warfare.  There is certainly plenty of literature detailing the fact that today smaller countries with limited budgets can make use of lower cost technologies than those used by larger powers creating an imbalance that clearly favors the smaller countries.

Carrying all of this to its normal conclusion, if left unchecked, brings us back to Einstein’s purported remarks which date back to the 1940s, when the first nuclear weapons were being developed. Although Albert Einstein didn’t actually develop the atom bomb, his work did make such a device possible.  He was the father of the bomb in two important ways: (1) it was his initiative which started U.S. bomb research; and (2) it was his equation (E = mc²) which made the atomic bomb theoretically possible.

Although he did repeatedly warn the world about the dangers of nuclear weapons, this quote doesn’t appear to be an exact record of the physicist’s words and even the earliest records appear to be anecdotal.

For example, in March 1947, reports appeared about an exchange that Einstein reportedly had with a group of friends at a dinner party.  He was asked by friends what new weapons might be employed in World War III. Appalled at the implications, he shook his head.  After several minutes of meditation, he said. “I don’t know what weapons might be used in World War III. But there isn’t any doubt what weapons will be used in World War IV.”

“And what are those?” a guest asked.

“Stone spears,” said Einstein.

While these reports might be more anecdotal than factual, some versions have been attributed to others as well.  There is, for example, a story about those who were present at the atom bomb test site at the Bikini atoll. According to wide ranging reports, a U.S. Army officer present there was asked what weapons would be used in the next war? “I dunno,” he said, “but in the war after the next war, sure as hell, they’ll be using spears!”

For the record, as we watch the nuclear arms race ramp up once again, we should note that scientists claim that a bomb can now be manufactured which will be 2,500 times as powerful as that which destroyed Hiroshima.  To be sure, if used it means the end of civilization.

American historian and philosopher Will Durant who died 45 years ago said:  “Civilization begins with order, grows with liberty and dies with chaos.”  There is no question we are in the third phase of that framework and to save ourselves, we probably need to return to order in order to avoid the apocalypse.   Let’s hope we can figure out how to do so before it is too late.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)