The US And Iran Have Reached An Impasse |
Iran was decisively defeated by the United States and Israel in the 40-day war that broke out on February 28. Yet the Iranian regime has not only survived the onslaught, but has seized control of the vital Strait of Hormuz and is implicitly daring US President Donald Trump to restart the war.
Not exactly what he had in mind when he joined forces with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to attack Iran after three rounds of peace talks.
US DefenSe Secretary Pete Hegseth, however, has threatened to resume hostilities. “Our forces are maximally postured to restart combat operations,” he said on April 16.
Although Trump has threatened to wreak further destruction on Iran, his gut tells him that the continuation of the war would be too costly politically and financially.
From the very outset, the war was unpopular in the United States, even among the Make-America-Great-Again faction of the Republican Party. And with the price of gasoline having reached an average of $4 per gallon, the already high cost of food is bound to escalate, leaving the Republicans vulnerable in the forthcoming mid-term elections.
Perfectly aware of these harsh realities and Trump’s desire to halt to the war, Iran has been in no hurry to settle it on his maximalist terms. Indeed, Iran’s goal is to establish “new security and political equations” in the Middle East that recognize its “power,” according to its Supreme National Security Council, which formulates foreign and defense policies.
On April 21, at Pakistan’s request, Trump extended the April 8 ceasefire indefinitely until “discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” He did so after Vice President JD Vance failed to reach an agreement with Iranian negotiators at high-stakes talks in Islamabad. From Iran’s perspective, Trump blinked.
Trump’s extension of the truce presumably validated the Iranian leadership’s conviction that their willingness to endure economic pain is higher than his. Iran may even think that it can withstand the US blockade of Iranian ports longer than Trump........