Trump, According to Trump |
Every day it’s the same: declaring war at lunch, and back to normal by dinner. I can’t figure out if I should be prepping a costume for the Purim party or buying water crates for the bomb shelter. They’ve driven us mad. To be honest, one man in particular is responsible: President Donald Trump. Volatile, unpredictable, boastful. It’s unclear what he wants from us—or from himself.
But what if I told you that this man—whose negotiating style dictates our fate—wrote a book explaining exactly which principles he lives by? “The Art of the Deal” (1987) outlines the rules Trump applied to his real estate ventures. We may be dealing with Iran rather than real estate, but for Donald, a deal is a deal. “The Donald” lists 11 core principles; three are particularly relevant here:
As expected, Trump emphasizes the importance of buzz, imagination, and aggressive PR for every move. He uses the term “Truthful Hyperbole.” Trump would often exaggerate the demand for apartments in his buildings to create a sense of exclusivity and prestige. In our context, the U.S. President makes sure to declare from every podium that he is ready for total war with Iran and has “destroyed” its nuclear capabilities. On the flip side, he emphasizes his expectation that talks will yield a “glorious peace like no other.” Thus, he seemingly hopes to pressure the Iranian leadership with one hand while dangling the carrot of lifting sanctions before the Iranian public with the other.
2. Maximize Your Options
Never lock yourself into a single deal or a single solution. Trump recommends keeping “a lot of balls in the air.” This prevents you from appearing desperate, and desperation is a disaster in negotiations. Indeed, while Jared Kushner is sent to talks in Geneva, Trump issues threats twice a week. The President ensures it is clear that if talks fail, he will pivot to “Plan B” without blinking an eye.
3. Defend Your Downside
Trump preaches understanding your worst-case scenario and working to block it. For the Americans, the worst-case scenario is Iran stalling through endless rounds of talks, using that time to restore and develop its nuclear and missile capabilities. Therefore, he sets a rigid schedule of very short deadlines for compromise proposals. Unlike previous agreements that took years to materialize, these are “sprints,” any of which could be the last. Through this, he attempts to prod Iran into cooperating—and fast.
Is everything fine then? No. I started by saying Trump is volatile, boastful, and unpredictable. When a person uses these tactics for so many years, their credibility isn’t exactly sky-high. Consequently, the Iranians might misinterpret Trump’s “truthful hyperbole,” and the situation could escalate due to a miscalculation.
Maximizing options can also lead to a scenario where a hollow threat by Trump triggers Iranian military action or a hardening of their positions. Finally, applying aggressive leverage without providing a “ladder to climb down” might back the other side into a corner—one where the Iranian regime views signing a deal as a humiliating existential surrender, preferring military escalation over a signature.