A recent poll by Gallup (https://news.gallup.com/poll/702440/israelis-no-longer-ahead-americans-middle-east-sympathies.aspx), published just days before the outbreak of the war with Iran, found—for the first time—that more Americans sympathize with the Palestinians than with the State of Israel. Among Democratic voters, the gap is especially striking: roughly two-thirds expressed greater sympathy for the Palestinians, compared to about one-fifth who said the same about Israel.

In Israel, the headlines were predictably alarmist, framing this shift as evidence of growing hostility toward Israel and Zionism—particularly within the Democratic Party. But a closer reading of the data reveals a far more complex reality, one that points to different and more nuanced conclusions.

Most surveys ask respondents a seemingly simple question: whose side are you on—Israel or the Palestinians? This framing imposes a zero-sum logic that fails to capture the views of many American Jews and Democrats, who reject such a binary choice. For them, it is entirely consistent to support Israel’s right to exist as a secure and democratic nation-state of the Jewish people while also supporting the Palestinians’ right to an independent state of their own.

An equally important question—rarely asked—is, which Israel are respondents thinking of? The answers in the Gallup poll likely reflect perceptions shaped by Israel’s recent right-wing governments.

Many American Jews and Democrats still identify with the vision laid out in Israel’s Declaration of Independence: a democratic, peace-seeking state committed to full equality for all its citizens, including non-Jews. What they struggle to support is the image projected by Israeli governments in recent decades—one associated with democratic backsliding, policies of exclusion, and a growing distance from the pursuit of peace.

Support for these governments does remain strong among certain constituencies in the United States. Evangelical Christians, for example, often back right-wing Israeli policies out of a shared theological worldview. They share a messianic vision with the right in Israel, even if they disagree on the identity of the messiah.

Some factions within the Republican Party view Israel as a model of assertive nationalism and the primacy of religious identity in public life. Just as they would like to see the United States become a country based on white Christian supremacy.

Support also exists among neoconservatives who share the view of right-wing governments in Israel, which holds that any challenge can be solved with military force, while the use of diplomacy is reserved for the weak progressives.

At the same time, a different current within the Republican Party—associated with “America First” thinking—has grown more skeptical of foreign entanglements, including close alignment with Israel. This trend, alongside the impact of the war in Gaza on younger Americans across the political spectrum, contributes to a gradual erosion of support among Republicans.

Just days after the Gallup poll was released, the annual conference of J Street convened in Washington. Despite the shadow of war, thousands of participants gathered—representing a distinctly liberal Zionist constituency. These are Americans deeply committed to Israel’s security and future, yet increasingly concerned about the country’s direction, both in terms of its internal democracy and its relations with the Palestinians.

If asked the same “whose side are you on” question, many in this community would reject the premise. Their sympathies extend both to Israelis living under threat and to Palestinians living under occupation. They have not forgotten the trauma of October 7, and many have been active in advocating for the release of Israeli hostages. They also acknowledge the suffering in Gaza and the rise of settler terrorism in the West Bank. In their view, lasting Israeli security is inseparable from Palestinian freedom and self-determination.

This perspective also shapes their approach to regional challenges, including Iran. Liberal Zionists tend to emphasize the importance of combining military strength with sustained diplomacy. They point to Israel’s peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan—cornerstones of its national security—as achievements made possible through diplomacy. Likewise, they view the nuclear agreement negotiated under Barack Obama as evidence that diplomatic engagement can effectively constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In their eyes, abandoning that path has only heightened regional risks.

Many within the American Jewish community share the concern that recent Israeli leadership has prioritized confrontation over diplomacy, particularly in its approach to Iran and its alignment with U.S. hawkish political actors. This perception contributes to growing unease among Democrats and a widening gap between Israel’s government and its traditional base of support in the United States.

At the same time, some established Jewish organizations in the U.S. continue to defend Israeli government policies reflexively, even as those positions diverge from the views of much of their constituency. A majority of American Jews—and of the Democratic mainstream—still strongly identify with the democratic values articulated in Israel’s founding vision. What they increasingly question is whether current policies reflect those values.

Organizations like J Street have, in many ways, come to embody this mainstream position: a commitment to Israel’s security alongside clear opposition to the policies of its current government. This, more than anything, helps explain the meaning behind the Gallup numbers.

To be sure, there are anti-Zionist voices within both the American Jewish community and the Democratic Party, including groups such as the Satmar Hasidim or Jewish Voices for Peace, whose Jewish worldview leads them to oppose Zionism. But they remain a minority. The broad center of the Jewish community and the Democratic Party continues to support strong U.S.–Israel ties, grounded in shared democratic principles.

The polling data points to a clear conclusion: the future of U.S.–Israel relations will depend not on messaging or public diplomacy alone, but on the alignment of values. The United States’ growing support for Israel is based on the idea that it is a liberal democracy that values peace and equality.

That is why the answer to declining support is not better “hasbara,” but a renewed effort to align Israeli policy with its founding ideals. Rebuilding the bridge between Israelis seeking a democratic and peaceful future and liberal American supporters who still believe in that vision presents both an opportunity and a challenge.

The numbers also demonstrate that J Street has the potential to serve as a conduit between Israelis seeking democracy and peace, and the liberal supporters of Israel in the United States.

I have no expectations from the Netanyahu coalition, but the sooner the Israeli opposition leaders understand who their true partners are, the easier it will be to strengthen Israel’s deteriorating position among those who, in a few months, may comprise the majority in Congress, and in less than three years, have a favorable chance of returning to the White House.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)