Israel’s new role in the new Middle East |
Abstract: The Middle East since the fall of the Ottomans a hundred years ago operates as a fluid balance-of-power system in which rising states provoke counter-alliances and declining ones trigger realignments, driven by deep insecurity rooted in the region’s unresolved tension between nation-states and enduring pan-Arab and pan-Islamic visions. Within this context, Israel’s unique position as a non-Arab, non-Islamic and yet strong regional military power could allow it to act as a stabilizing arbiter, but only if it resolves the Palestinian issue, shifts toward diplomacy, and is broadly accepted as a legitimate and permanent part of the region.
In the Middle East when one country rises others unite against it, as an old rival falls the alliances that shaped to block it, dissipate and are replaced by a new kaleidoscope of enmity. A strong Syria caused jealousy and rivalry from their Ba’ath brothers, a weak Iran caused the UAE and KSA to rekindle their rivalry.
On its face, this does not make the Middle East so different from other regions. Yet even in the blood-soaked rivalries of pre–World War II Europe, there was a key constraint: since the collapse of the idea of a unified Roman Empire, no European power could realistically expect to fully absorb another. Victors imposed harsh treaties and seized territory (often only a small even if strategically important Island or overseas territory) but Paris remained Paris, and Berlin remained Berlin.
The same cannot be said of the........