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The 1938 Delusion: Why History is Repeating Itself with Iran

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yesterday

In September 1938, the world was held in the balance by two men who represented a fractured vision of reality.

Neville Chamberlain was the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, the leader of a global empire. Haunted by the slaughter of World War I, he believed that rational diplomacy could prevent another catastrophe. When he flew to Munich to meet Hitler, he didn’t go as a coward, but as a man convinced that a signed treaty could tame a tyrant.

Winston Churchill, meanwhile, was in his “wilderness years.” Holding no government office, he was a lonely backbencher dismissed as an alarmist. While the public celebrated Chamberlain’s return, Churchill warned that a “quiet sleep” was no substitute for the truth.

Upon his return, Chamberlain famously declared to the crowds:

“My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.”

“My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.”

Five days later, Churchill delivered the devastating rebuttal:

“You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.“

“You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.“

The Modern-Day “Peace for Our Time”

The echoes of 1938 were unmistakable in 2015, when the world again sought to solve an existential threat through a signature. Upon the adoption of the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA), President Barack Obama spoke with the same high-minded optimism that characterized the Munich Agreement. He stated:

“I am confident in the extraordinary benefits to our national security and the peace and security of the world that come with the successful implementation of the JCPOA… we, together with our partners, must now focus on the critical work of fully implementing this comprehensive resolution.”

“I am confident in the extraordinary benefits to our national security and the peace and security of the world that come with the successful implementation of the JCPOA… we, together with our partners, must now focus on the critical work of fully implementing this comprehensive resolution.”

The sentiment of the modern-day “Chamberlains” continues to this day. I recently encountered a post that mourned the loss of this diplomacy, claiming:

“The nuclear issue could have been handled most effectively by an agreement… we’re now less safe, less moral, less financially intact.”

“The nuclear issue could have been handled most effectively by an agreement… we’re now less safe, less moral, less financially intact.”

We should not condemn these thinkers for desiring peace; it is a noble impulse. But it is a dangerous position when your adversary has spent half a century preparing for your destruction and explicitly telling you so.

The Wisdom of Ecclesiastes and the Reality of the Psalms

The Bible warns us against misreading the “time” we are in. In Ecclesiastes 3:8, we are taught:

“A time to love and a time to hate; a time for war and a time for peace.“

“A time to love and a time to hate; a time for war and a time for peace.“

The wisdom here is discernment. To pursue the tools of peace in a “time for war” is not a moral victory; it is a strategic catastrophe. When an adversary builds a “Ring of Fire” around your borders, the “time for peace” has not yet been earned.

Psalm 120:6-7 captures the agonizing reality of the Jewish people:

“Too long have I dwelt with those who hate peace. I am for peace; but when I speak, they are for war.“

“Too long have I dwelt with those who hate peace. I am for peace; but when I speak, they are for war.“

This cuts through the static. We are a people of peace, but we face a regime that defines itself by war.

From Enslavement to Discernment

As we approach Passover, this dichotomy feels particularly resonant. The Haggadah reminds us that “in every generation, they rise up against us to destroy us.”

The Exodus was not achieved through a “nuclear deal” with Pharaoh. Moses did not seek a middle ground that would allow the Egyptians to keep their whips while the Israelites gained a “phased” freedom. There was a moment where diplomacy ended and the “time for war”—the plagues and the crossing of the sea—began.

Passover teaches us that freedom requires the courage to recognize an existential threat for what it is. If Moses had acted like Chamberlain, seeking a “peace for our time” that left the power of the oppressor intact, the Jewish people would have remained in the mud of Egypt.

There is a place for the diplomat, and a place for the hope that agreements might one day hold. But we must stop pretending that 1938 was an anomaly. Chamberlain’s tragedy wasn’t his desire for peace; it was his refusal to see that his adversary had already decided on war. Iran has spent 50 years telling us who they are. To suggest we are “less safe” because we are finally confronting that reality is to prefer the “quiet sleep” of 1938 over the “martial vigor” required to survive 2026.

Like Churchill, and like Moses and our ancestors in Egypt, we recognize that true peace is not found in avoiding a struggle, but in having the moral clarity to do what needs to be done to win it.


© The Times of Israel (Blogs)