In the coming days, negotiations between Iran and the US to end this war may begin. As part of the lead up to negotiations, it is entirely probable that Trump and Iran will agree to a total ceasefire before they begin. Iran has promised Hizbollah that a ceasefire will include our north.

Due to these possibilities, Netanyahu has ordered the Air Force to greatly increase the bombings of military production facilities, missile launchers and missile storage locations.

Even before Trump began yelling about these negotiations, Netanyahu had his coalition vote on increasing the number of reserves they can call up immediately to 400,000 in order to begin a major ground offensive in Lebanon. This, however was done with the backdrop of possible direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon proposed by France which could have major potential for a far reaching non belligerency agreement that could lead to a full peace treaty.

If the negotiations with Iran lead to an end of the war, which is likely because Trump needs to end the war for political reasons, an agreement will fall very short of Trump’s 15 points. Despite all of his promises to Netanyahu, there are only 2 points that have utmost importance to Trump. He will likely show great flexibility with all the rest. The 2 issues for Trump: a nuclear agreement that Iran will end their nuclear program either for many years or ‘forever’ (however long forever may actually be)- he needs to show that he achieved a better agreement than Obama, and a financial interest either in Iranian oil or a partnership with Iran to be the joint toll-keepers for the Strait of Hormuz. Although the idea of giving Iran the rights to collect tolls from every ship going through the Strait is an unbelievable, unreasonable and unprecented demand, Trump may very well go along with it as long as he is a partner. I would not be surprised if he makes the same kind of deal here that he made with the Kuwaitis of their gift of the Royal 747 which will stay with Trump even after he leaves office. It is completely believable that he will attempt to make a deal in which the actual partner with Iran will be him personally through one of his or his family’s businesses or a new consortium that will actually be his business. He has stated a number of times this last week that the toll keepers will be a partnership between him and “whatever Ayatollah” he deals with. He did not say a partnership between Iran and the US.

Whatever agreement Trump will finally agree to, he will impose it on Netanyahu just like he did with Gaza. Netanyahu knows this very well and he will act as he has done with Gaza, claiming that everything is a violation of the agreement and therefore he has the right to act militarily. Either Netanyahu or his lapdog, Katz the defense minister, will announce that any violation will be met with force. He will choose inflammatory announcements instead of any attempts of embracing the opportunities of diplomacy.

With Lebanon, there are amazing and new opportunities for real life changing diplomacy. The Lebanese people are absolutely fed up with Hizbollah being a military power that brings death and destruction upon them. They would be very happy to be done with Hizbollah as a political power as well. Hizbollah’s political strength has been weakening since the October War and has gotten a much stronger blow in this war that they chose Iran over Lebanon. The overwhelming majority of Lebanese blame Hizbollah for all of the destruction far more than they blame Israel.

For years, the Lebanese government was in total disarray and powerless, and this worked to the benefit of Hizbollah. Hizbollah’s history has been to wreak havoc on Lebanon in order to maintain and strengthen its own political and military power. They even assassinated the last strong Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri because he was a threat to their power base. There is now a confluence of hatred of Hizbollah and a strengthening government under President Josef Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. They are working very hard and with lots of internal and external support to take back Lebanon from outside forces: Hizbollah and Iran.

Now is the time for real diplomacy from Israel, even if it is imposed by the US. If the financially powerful Gulf States believe that the time is finally ripe and get assurances that Israel will not again destroy South Lebanon, complete Beirut neighborhoods and other areas of Lebanon, they will be willing to aid the Lebanese government to rebuild and train the Lebanese Army. It will then be the Lebanese government and army’s responsibility to total disarm Hizbollah and become the sole military security apparatus in Lebanon, as they have already declared. But this will not happen if they fear that Israel will again resort to military might and destroy all they invest. It is the same situation as Gaza. The Gulf States are prepared to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in Gaza but with certain conditions: that Israel will not again destroy their investments, that the Palestinian Authority be in charge, and that Trump’s 19-point plan be followed which will lead to a Palestinian State.

For so long, Netanyahu had most of the world convinced that he had the veto for a Palestinian State. The way that Netanyahu conducted the October War in Gaza with its near total destruction turned the tide on this aura of a veto and now 157 United Nations member states formally recognize the State of Palestine (over 80% of UN membership.

Netanyahu, in all of his years as Prime Minister, never conducted or allowed to have real diplomacy with regard to ‘enemy states’. Making normalization agreements (Abraham Accords) with countries that have never been at war with Israel is very different than peace treaties or non-belligerence agreements with countries that are at war with us.

Just as with Gaza, diplomacy has to be forced on him. This puts him into foreign territory. He has based himself on being Mr. Security (a failed misnomer) by claims that only he can protect us from our enemies. His entire political career has been based on building fear and hate and claims of existential threats that he bolstered.

On the diplomatic side, he liked to claim that he was welcomed on the Red Carpet (literally, most likely part of his demands when his people arranged State visits to friendly nations) and that no other potential leader in Israel had his gravitas. Just as he abandoned the security of Israel, he also abandoned and damaged relations with most of the countries that considered themselves friends of Israel. Netanyahu is lost in a world where real diplomacy is needed and takes precedence. When you paint a picture of everything around you being nails and the people buy into it, it’s easy to be a hammer. But when the nails disappear, he doesn’t know where to go but to threaten and continue to attack.

Ending this war at this time becomes very problematic for Netanyahu. The main reason for it to have gone on so long, besides there being a total lack of strategy, is for there to be real gains to cover up his failures and boasts of great successes at the (supposed) end of the October War. He claimed that Hizbollah was completely weakened and would never be a threat to the north again and that Iran’s nuclear program was all but wiped out and would take years for them to recover as well as major damage to their ability to launch ballistic missiles against Israel. These exaggerations and lies were fully exposed in this part of the continuing October War.

Netanyahu’s plans to regain his self-proclaimed moniker of Mr. Security will become much more problematic if he is not able to show real military successes. This won’t stop him, of course. He will attempt to own the entire narrative and will claim successes that will not be backed up with facts. Therefore, he is afraid. For a good part of this part of the war, it has appeared that his political position was strengthening as a result of military successes. But when both Iran and Hizbollah show that they can continue daily to paralyze the entire country, destroy the economy, close the skies to Israel and terrorize millions by sending us back and forth to safe spaces, ‘Mr. Security’ becomes the emperor with no clothes. Netanyahu is afraid. He should be and we, the citizens of Israel who are fed up with his wars and narratives of lies and deception much make sure that his fears will remove him from the political scene and from our lives entirely.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)