Hamas Is Not Going Anywhere and Will Remain Armed |
Once this reality sinks in, improvements can begin. Critically, President Trump can stop the drift to an ugly status quo for Gaza
Trump’s stage one of peace in Gaza has essentially been achieved as the last hostage’s body has been returned to Israel, and the border crossing between Israel and Egypt is open, if only partially. Unfortunately, little preparation has been done for stage two, including the introduction of a multi-national security force, the disarmament of Hamas, and the departure of the Israeli military. The reason is that none of these is remotely likely to occur. Wishful thinking and any number of worldly statements won’t make it so.
A realistic plan must replace the delusions
Coupling Israeli occupation to the disarmament of Hamas almost ensures the yellow line (defining the Israeli—occupied half of Gaza) becomes a lasting boundary of Israel. Skirmishes will continue, despite the official ceasefire, because Gaza remains a torn and unstable zone of competing armed factions, not only of Hamas. And, further killings of Israeli soldiers will trigger retaliation against Hamas, likely involving civilian casualties. Without outside action, mainly from America, and particularly from President Trump, Gaza’s population will remain in a hopeless, desperate limbo, lasting months and possibly years.
That Hamas will surrender its weapons to a miraculously appearing peacekeeping force is an unhelpful delusion interfering with modest but realistic progress. Netanyahu’s Israel has tried and failed to disarm Hamas since its existence. Why would another nation or party succeed or even try? Given the all too apparent risk of placing itself between the fire of Israel and Hamas. Some nations (not America) have offered to participate in peacekeeping, though the conditions for involvement vary; none have been met, and none are likely to be.
Maintaining power is paramount to Netanyahu
His path is more flexible than it appears. Unlike his government colleagues, Netanyahu is more driven by pragmatism and survival instincts than by idealism or religious fervor.
To accommodate the extremes in his government, Netanyahu could undermine the fragile ceasefire, return to further destruction of Gaza (at least half of Hamas, including tunnels, remain intact), and pursue the ‘Greater Israel’ vision. All, in the hope that voters appreciate such expansive actions in this year’s election. Alternatively, Netanyahu could abandon the extreme members in his government who have held him captive and forge a more moderate coalition, potentially being reelected with the help of President Trump’s popularity within Israel. Another possibility, and the most consistent with his previous behavior, is for Netanyahu to maintain a holding pattern of ceasefire, Israeli occupation of half of Gaza, Hamas in the other, and wait for a change and opportunity to his advantage — a disinterested or distracted Donald Trump would be such.
The flexibility of Netanyahu’s survival paths offers Trump, albeit a small one, an opportunity to make peace more attractive to the Israeli prime minister. Trump’s lust for a Nobel Peace Prize is a condition to be blessed, not ridiculed, as a valuable incentive and rail for a meandering leader.
Trump holds a crucial card
Favorability of Israel’s actions (and Israel) has plummeted to a historic low (53% of Americans now hold an unfavorable view of Israel, according to the Pew Research Center). Once politically impossible to interfere with American aid to Israel, the question is now open. Trump has leverage over Netanyahu that Biden did not.
Netanyahu must understand that American money and military equipment for Israel can be jeopardized if the ceasefire is sabotaged or if humanitarian assistance is withheld from Gaza’s population. A Trump insistence that Netanyahu immediately lift the ban on foreign journalists entering Gaza would recover the world’s attention, apart from increasing oversight and accountability.
What then? If Hamas can’t be forced to disarm
Made extremely difficult by decades of Netanyahu honing the military wing of Hamas, the political wing must now be nurtured. It will take dedication and patience, but this stands a chance of normalizing Gaza while dissipating the physical threat to Israel. A possible model is the transition of the militant IRA into a regular political party, Sinn Féin, in Ireland.