Dancing with chavismo

It does not happen often that you wake up on a Saturday morning in the new year of 2026, only to read that Caracas has been targeted by American airstrikes; one day later, you see the toppled Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shuffling in slippers on American soil in handcuffs. From bus driver, to trade unionist, to president, to American prisoner. That is quite the trajectory. So, what now?

Not the Monroe Doctrine, but the Roosevelt Corollary

The Monroe Doctrine is mentioned explicitly as the explanatory model for President Donald Trump’s surprising order to act in Venezuela. Well, it is a little more complex than that. A useful guide would be American historian Jay Sexton’s book The Monroe Doctrine on the interesting evolution of a doctrine that has its origins in an 1823 Presidential address. What in 1823 was meant as a warning to European colonial powers that they should not intervene in independent American states, had been expanded by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1904, to include American freedom of action to intervene in the Western Hemisphere. It showed the evolution of the United States transforming itself into a global power and Roosevelt thus felt that his country should assume the mantle of responsibility. Interestingly, though, it was a rejection of the Argentinian Drago Doctrine, which called for American multilateralism. Instead, Roosevelt wanted to preserve US unilateralism and I would argue that this explains Trump’s intervention in a Latin American country, as one in a longer list of American interventions. Some were arguably successful, such as Ronald Reagan’s decision to intervene in Grenada. Others, such as John F. Kennedy’s Cuban intervention or Dwight D. Eisenhower’s toppling of the democratically elected Jacobo Árbenz government in Guatemala were considered less successful. But, much time has passed since the last intervention by an American government in Latin America.

 

Drugs, oil, and the future

First of all, the entire operation was an impressive military feat. Fast, no American deaths, and an extraction of an autocrat and his spouse from a military base. This is as impressive – or even more – as President Barack Obama’s operation to eliminate Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan. The justification had been Maduro’s involvement in narcotrafficking, mostly, though experts have pointed out that Colombia, of course, is the largest producer of cocaine. So, next to drugs many are already arguing that Venezuelan oil was the key reason to intervene. Indeed, Trump himself already mentioned that American oil companies would revitalize the Venezuelan oil industry, which is far from reaching its potential, and that millions of barrels of the black gold would be transferred to the United States and used for the benefit of the American and Venezuelan people.

Now, what will be Washington’s next step? As is rather common, Trump’s statements tend to create confusion, as the goals can change within the space of a day. Does years of oversight mean that Venezuela will become a protectorate? Will there be a democratic transition? And what will be the future of relations between the United States and Venezuela?

Upon hearing the news, Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado, who fled Venezuela out of fear of being arrested by Maduro, declared that she was ready to help lead the country and urged opposition candidate Edmundo González to be recognized as Venezuela’s legitimate president. But that does not seem to align with “America First,” as Trump called her a nice lady, who lacked the backing of the people – I am not sure which poll he has used as evidence to back up this statement. And, at first, he argued that the United States would run the country, until a transition would be deemed possible, but by now he speaks of Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez as the best candidate to run the country – she already has been appointed by Venezuela as Maduro’s successor. So, this is not really regime change, because it remains intact, being led by a politician who subscribes to chavismo. The opposition seems to be sidelined and a possible democratic transition is vague. Time will tell.

Dancing with Delcy

For now, Washington seems to have invited Delcy Rodríguez to dance. However, it is quite clear that the United States will lead. No problem, as Delcy is a hardened political survivor. The website Caracas Chronicles provides rather interesting information about Rodríguez throughout the years.

In 2017, Delcy Rodríguez was Foreign Minister during Nicolás Maduro’s presidency. Known for her combative rhetoric to the point of not being taken seriously by her international counterparts, Maduro always praised her as the “tigress,” for her fierce loyalty. For example, when CNN reported that Venezuela was selling passports to terrorists eight years ago, Rodríguez flew into a rage, accusing the American network of launching a war propaganda campaign against Venezuela. Measures followed swiftly and CNN was banned in the Bolivarian Republic, which joined the illustrious club comprising Cuba, Syria, North Korea, and Iran.

She was not always like this, as in 2006 she openly criticized El Comandante (Hugo Chávez himself), when she was his