Pandemics and other biases |
A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a disease affecting many people across multiple continents. It is usually caused by a new virus to which most people lack immunity. Ebola and the hantavirus are now in the headlines. In such outbreaks, a rapid response is set to contain the spread and reassure the public. Some outbreaks do not cause the same alarm but are no less deadly.
On February 7, 2020, a paper by Wang et al. described the clinical characteristics of 138 hospitalized patients with pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus infection in Wuhan, China. Like others, I had heard of coronavirus and had watched early reports. In December 2019, my index of concern was low. As an ICU physician, I knew if the coronavirus continued to spread, my work would be directly impacted.
The paper from Wuhan, China, covered the period from January 1, 2020, to January 28, 2020. On January 1, 2020, there were 6,061 known cases of novel coronavirus. The first confirmed case of the novel coronavirus in the US was announced by the CDC on January 20, 2020. By February 3, that number had increased to 20,626.
The information in this paper claimed an ICU admission rate of 26% and a mortality of 4.3%. It was at that moment that I became alarmed. I wrote about my concern for MedPage Today in February 2020. My piece was submitted on February 7. On February 11, 2020, the WHO announced the new name for this virus would be COVID-19.
By the time I wrote my piece, there were 37,606 recorded cases. My warning was that ICU services would rapidly become overwhelmed, and a failure to act would be potentially catastrophic. As of early 2026, over 1.2 million Americans had died from COVID-19. The COVID-19 pandemic is considered the deadliest disaster in US history.
It was very difficult for many to accept the deadly consequences of COVID-19. False information about the origins and treatments of COVID spread widely. Sometimes, the spread of information acts to confirm a bias, even when the underpinnings of that bias are evidence-free.
Novel viruses carry in us few preconceived notions, and our relationship to them is likely agnostic, at least at the beginning. Immunity derived from vaccines and exposure........