With the unexpectedly prolonged fighting, it is increasingly clear that Israel and the United States underestimated Iran’s and Hezbollah’s capabilities, resolve, and strategic depth in the current conflict. This misjudgement goes beyond intelligence failures; it stems from flawed assumptions underestimating extreme ideological fervor, and wrongly presumed fragility of these regimes.

The broader problem: The intelligence failure by the United States and Israel is only part of a broader miscalculation: a deep philosophical gulf between the West’s liberal democratic worldview and that of Islamic fundamentalist regimes. What one side regards as “normal” political behavior does not apply to the other.

Democracies: In broad terms, the Western liberal model is built on several core principles: democratically elected governments, the sanctity of human life, independent courts and media, equal rights for women, tolerance of pluralism, and crucially, accountability.  While no democracy fully realizes these ideals, they remain the standards against which leaders are judged and the mechanisms through which power is constrained.

Accountability: Unfettered independent accountability is arguably the most consequential democratic principle. Western governments face three types of checks: media and judicial scrutiny, and electoral accountability. Leaders suspected of acting against the national interest can be criticized in the press, investigated in courts, and removed at the ballot. Regular party turnover in the United States and presidential term limits, illustrates how these mechanisms restrain power and sustain public legitimacy.

Jihad Fundamentalists: Not all Muslims are devout; not all devout Muslims are fundamentalists; and not all fundamentalists are Jihadists. Jihadism is a militant subset of Islamist movements that unapologetically endorses violence, including atrocities, to achieve political ends. Though small in number, Jihadists pose a disproportionate threat to Western security and stability.

Many Jihadist groups are outside of the Middle East and have no interface with Israel. Some (not all) examples include Al‑Qaeda’s 9/11 attacks in the US which killed nearly 3,000; ISIS whose caliphate perpetrated genocides and widely publicized atrocities;  the Taliban’s 2021 return to Afghanistan imposing draconian Sharia punishments and driving the country into a severe humanitarian crisis; and Boko Haram’s insurgency, including mass kidnappings such as Chibok inflicting extensive death,........

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