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Right bloc with all its seats fight over ‘ego’

15 1 0
23.02.2021

THE MARLOW REPORT:

There will be 3 elections in Israel. The first will be on 23 March when the Israeli registered voters will have an opportunity to choose a party of their choice. The second election is when the President meets with the leaders of each party and asks, “Who do you wish to nominate as Prime Minister?”

The third election is the political parties who pass the minimum threshold of 3.25%, (equivalent to 4 Knesset seats), vote either for a government that has to reach 61 seats or more, or vote to oppose a newly formed government.

The left will receive a handful of seats. The Arab vote will go down and the centre-left Yesh Atid party, cannot crack that 20 seat mark.

According to all polls, Likud is on 29-30 seats and that’s a strong 10 seats ahead of its nearest rival, Yesh Atid. So the closest path to a workable government is Likud, Shas and UTJ with around 45 seats. Bibi will then need to convince Naftali Bennett and Yamina with around 12-13 seats to join him.

Now Bennett is going to put a very high price on his party joining the coalition, with a demand of several senior ministries, Knesset committee chairmanships and a commitment to reduce the power of the Supreme Court. With the Religious Zionists led by Betzalel Smotrich likely to pass the threshold, Netanyahu will have his magic number of 61 seats.

Any other coalition is much more complicated because they involve issues of “ego”. Yair Lapid, Gideon Sa’ar and Naftali Bennett all wish to become Prime Minister and are unlikely to come to an agreement between themselves. In addition, in order to reach at least 61 seats, the anti-Bibi bloc would have to include right and left-wing parties along with the Arabs, which is non-workable at any level.

The crazy thing is the Right bloc will win 80 seats or more if you add Likud, New Hope, Yamina, UTJ, Shas and Yisrael Beitenu. But several of these parties refuse to work with each other, which is why we keep having elections. In other words, almost everyone is ruling out sitting with almost anyone.

You have to go back to 1992 when the Right bloc fell out with each other, and not only did they bring down the Yitzhak Shamir government, they brought Yitzhak Rabin to power and the dreaded Oslo Accords.

The split in the Right camp today is not about ideology. It’s about personality and the inability of party leaders to accept Likud, under Netanyahu, winning more seats than any other party.

But Naftali Bennett is currently playing the best strategy. By........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)


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