One nail drives out another. This popular saying fits perfectly to understand what we are witnessing in Venezuela and across the Western Hemisphere. It would also be appropriate to invoke Newton’s second law, which states that only a greater force can stop a lesser one.

For nearly three decades, radical left forces—transformed into corrupt and criminal autocracies—took control of Venezuela, strengthened the Ortega dictatorship in Nicaragua, and attempted to establish similar regimes in Bolivia and Ecuador. In addition, there are the forces of drug trafficking and subversion entrenched in Mexico and Colombia, which continue to operate with a certain degree of impunity, even after the incomplete Colombian peace process and the failed Mexican war against drug cartels.

It should come as no surprise, then, that the Donald Trump administration has decided to impose its hegemony in the Western Hemisphere by force, with the demonstrative effect it delivered in Venezuela on January 3 with the military attack and extraction of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores. Given the ineffectiveness of the multilateral system (OAS, UN) and the brutality of regimes such as the “Fidelista” one in Cuba, the “Orteguista” in Nicaragua, and the “Chavista” in Venezuela—which close every door to peaceful democratic transitions—the big stick of the United States has arrived to shake the foundations of these dictatorships. No one can claim that Trump’s strategy will succeed. What we do know is that the well-meaning rhetoric of governments and international organizations had achieved absolutely nothing. Authoritarian regimes and those linked to transnational organized crime grew stronger and kept shaping the world’s conflict agenda—either through direct interventions (like Iran backing Hamas and Hezbollah) or more underground methods, such as money laundering (with Venezuela acting as the primary hub for laundering funds for corrupt officials, criminals, and terrorists).

Sure, Trump has not moved his pieces to defend democratic principles and freedom. The extremely costly military-police operation to arrest Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores changes the geopolitical picture. The United States removes China, Russia, and Iran from Venezuela, and gets its hands on the oil business in that South American country. Additionally, Trump has adopted a “tough hand” policy against immigrants locally within the United States themselves. There, his bet is that this will yield electoral dividends in the midterm elections in November, as his hard-core base would mobilize. However, there are indicators that the recent deaths at the hands of ICE officials are beginning to generate concerns and antipathies toward Trump’s aggressive policies against the so-called sanctuary cities such as Miami, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, and others.

Revolutionaries in Disarray

We are living in a reactionary moment. By “reactionary,” I mean two things. First, it is a reaction against trends that have been steadily consolidating in geopolitics, in the internal politics of countries, in culture, and in morality. Second, it is a reaction aimed at returning to a traditional or more conservative world in which force plays a role in re-establishing an order that is considered to have been violated/undermined.

All revolutionary proposals are in crisis. Those that have emerged from the left, at least in Ibero-America, are losing ground. In Chile, Argentina, and Ecuador, democratic elections have worked in favor of the right. In El Salvador, the elected right-wing autocrat Bukele enjoys high popularity thanks to his “zero crime” policy. Left-wing governments remain in power in Mexico and Brazil—two administrations that have proven to be complicit, through action or omission, with their autocratic leftist counterparts.

Radical Islamism has also taken heavy blows. Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, opened Pandora’s box. Israel responded forcefully: it destroyed Gaza, eliminated the military leadership of Palestinian terrorists, dealt significant blows to Hezbollah, contributed to the fall of al-Assad in Syria, and carried out bombings in Iran that opened the door for the United States to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel reaffirmed its role as the hegemonic power in the Middle East. The ayatollahs in Iran are repressing and killing protesters who have risen up against the reign of terror of the Islamic Republic. Will the fundamentalist Shia regime fall? We don’t know. What is certain is that it is weakened.

This reactionary moment has also been reinforced by policies against woke-ism in the United States. These decisions affect transgender athletes, gender transition treatments for minors, pro-Hamas radical expressions and antisemitism on university campuses, and the editorial lines of media outlets.

Chile stands as the emblematic case of this reactionary moment. The left-wing government of president Gabriel Boric failed in its attempt to change the Chilean constitution. The first proposal presented by the Constitutional Convention contained all the components of left-wing radicalism and woke-ism. Chileans overwhelmingly voted against that constitutional change proposal, delivering the first major defeat to Boric’s progressive coalition. A second attempt at constitutional change also failed, closing the door on any modification of the Chilean Constitution—a second major failure for the president of the southern republic. The Chilean political cycle closed with the election of a right-wing president, José Antonio Kast.

Nothing is decided yet. We do not know whether Venezuela will experience a transition toward democracy. Nor is it clear how the situation in the Middle East will evolve. It remains to see how Trump’s pugnacity with the Europeans about Greenland will end. The Trump administration will have to face the midterm elections next November. If it loses its majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, then US foreign policy could take a different turn. Only then will we see the true strength of this reactionary moment.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)