Washington Must Plan for Iraq |
If Washington Confronts Iran, Iraq Will Be the First Shockwave
As debate in Washington periodically returns to how far the United States should go in confronting Iran, one critical arena remains under examined: neighboring Iraq.
For Israeli security planners watching Iran’s growing network of regional proxies, this blind spot matters. Any serious pressure campaign against Tehran economic, political, or military is unlikely to stop at Iran’s borders. The first and most immediate ripple effects would likely be felt in Iraq, where Iran has spent more than two decades patiently building influence.
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Tehran has cultivated deep ties with Iraqi political factions, supported powerful militias that later became partly institutionalized within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), and entrenched cross-border trade and energy dependence.
The result is not that Iraq is simply an Iranian proxy. Iraqi nationalism remains real, and political authority in Baghdad is fragmented. But Iran’s footprint inside Iraq is now deep enough that the two arenas cannot be treated separately, a reality with growing relevance for both Washington and Jerusalem.
The militia pressure point
Iran’s most potent leverage in Iraq runs through armed groups. Several major PMF factions maintain long-standing operational and ideological ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
On paper, the PMF answers to Baghdad. In practice, the picture is more complex. Some factions operate largely within the Iraqi chain of command, while others retain significant autonomy and enduring relationships with Tehran.
This hybrid structure creates a familiar risk: if tensions between Washington and Tehran escalate, Iraq could again become a pressure arena where Iran-aligned militias target US interests indirectly or contribute to broader regional instability.
Israel has already witnessed how Tehran leverages non-state partners across multiple fronts. Iraq remains one of the less discussed but potentially consequential arenas in that network.
Political influence that still matters
Iran’s strategy in Iraq has never depended on formal control. Instead, Tehran has invested heavily in long-term political relationships, particularly within Iraq’s Shiite political landscape.
Many Iraqi leaders maintained ties with Iran dating back to their years in exile during Saddam Hussein’s rule. Today, government formation in Baghdad still reflects a delicate balancing act among domestic factions, Iranian influence, and US engagement.
Iran does not dictate every political outcome in Iraq. But it often retains enough influence to complicate Western policy objectives at critical moments especially during periods of regional escalation.
Economic ties Washington cannot ignore
The Iran-Iraq relationship is also reinforced by hard economics. Iraq remains one of Iran’s most important trade partners and a key destination for Iranian energy exports.
Iraq’s electricity grid particularly during peak summer demand still relies heavily on imported Iranian natural gas. Cross-border commerce and financial channels have also helped Tehran soften the impact of international sanctions.
For US policymakers, this creates a persistent dilemma: measures designed to economically squeeze Iran can generate real instability inside Iraq, with potential spillover effects across the region.
The Kurdish dimension
Iran’s reach extends into Iraq’s Kurdish north as well, though unevenly. Tehran has long used border pressure, trade leverage, and selective political engagement to protect its interests in the Kurdistan Region.
Not all Kurdish actors align with Iran far from it. But the region remains part of Tehran’s broader strategic calculus. Any major US-Iran escalation would likely produce secondary effects in both Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, adding another layer of regional complexity.
Washington’s enduring blind spot
The United States does not need to assume Iran controls Iraq to recognize the strategic problem. The more important reality is structural: over two decades, Tehran has built durable networks inside Iraq’s political, economic, and security systems.
Yet Washington too often treats Iran policy and Iraq policy as separate files. In practice, they are deeply intertwined.
Ignoring that linkage risks strategic surprise not only for the United States but for regional partners closely watching Iran’s evolving playbook.
If the United States moves to significantly escalate pressure on Iran economically, politically, or militarily Iraq is unlikely to remain insulated. For policymakers in Washington and observers in Israel alike, the lesson is straightforward: any serious Iran strategy must account for the Iraqi arena from the outset.
Because in today’s Middle East, one reality is increasingly clear: If Washington confronts Iran, Iraq will be the first shockwave.