The US-Israeli offensive against the Iranian regime, launched in the early morning hours of Saturday February 28, caught Iran’s military apparatus and its intelligence off guard, as proven by the immediate elimination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, targeted by a massive air raid in his Tehran residence.

It is evident that the regime did not expect an imminent attack and believed it could continue delaying matters through hollow negotiations designed solely to buy time for advancing its nuclear capabilities.

However, as the attack began, the regime’s armed forces found themselves in serious trouble facing the colossal US-Israeli war machine which quickly achieved air and sea superiority, eliminating Iran’s air defenses and exterminating the regime’s bases and missile launchers.

As the Pentagon reported on March 4, in just three days, Iran’s ballistic missile launches have decreased by 86% since the first day of fighting, with a 23% decrease in the last 24 hours alone. Its unidirectional attack drone launches have decreased by 73% since the first few days.

On March 1 at  0600 EST, air superiority was achieved along the Iranian coast and into Iran; at 2300 EST, Israeli air superiority was achieved over Tehran. By March 3, there were no more Iranian warships in the Arabian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman.

Iran’s response to the offensive was disastrous. Its initial move was to launch strikes primarily against civilian targets in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and even Qatar and Oman—the latter two countries having long maintained good relations with the Iranian regime—rather than focusing solely on U.S. bases in the region. Iran targeted hotels, shopping malls, airports, and oil infrastructure in an attempt to spread chaos across the region and pressure the countries under attack to compel the United States to halt the war.

However, as explained on Fox News by former CENTCOM director, Joe Buccino: “It was a stunning strategic miscalculation as it is pushing the Gulf states towards Israel”. Moreover, “The Gulf Coordination Council has already decried Iran…And this could set the Gulf states on a path towards normalization with Israel”.

In sum, the Iranian regime achieved the exact opposite effect as the Gulf states took a hostile stance against the Ayatollahs.

On March 5, three Iranian drones targeted the passenger terminal of Nakhchivan International Airport in Azerbaijan, near the Iranian border, injuring two people. In the preceding days, Iranian drones had also struck Cyprus, a member of the European Union, prompting France, Spain, Greece, and Italy to announce their involvement in defensive activities.

As stated by EU Foreign High Representative Kaja Kallas: “Iran is exporting war, trying to spread it to as many countries as possible to sow chaos.”

In broad terms, Iran initially tried to create fear and instability among its Gulf neighbors, hoping they would push the United States and Israel to halt the attack. Since the regime’s plan did not succeed, Tehran is now attempting to further expand the chaos by attacking civilian targets. However, the expansion of Iranian attacks beyond the Gulf is not helping the regime either and, on the contrary, it is only generating further hostility towards Tehran.

Spreading chaos and terror by aiming at civilian targets is indeed a form of terrorism which perfectly reflects the fanatic Islamist ideology of the Ayatollahs and, as the Khomeinist regime is now agonizing, further desperate and irrational actions can be expected.

Among them, terrorist attacks on European and US soil cannot be ruled out, whether perpetrated by Iranian and pro-Iranian sleeper cells, or by autonomous individuals often indicated as “lone-wolves”.

Two isolated cases already occurred in Canada and the United States: on March1st, in Toronto, a boxing gym owned by Iranian-Canadian dissident activist Salar Gholami was struck by gunfire in a clear intimidation attack.

In the evening of the same day, a 53-year-old Senegalese citizen wearing a shirt with the logo of the Iranian regime and a sweatshirt with the phrase “Property of Allah” opened fire on an Austin bar, killing two and wounding 15. Police found a flag of the Islamic Republic and photographs of Iranian regime leaders inside his apartment.

In the meantime, in Europe, individuals close to the regime are verbally targeting Iranian anti-regime demonstrators, calling them “traitors”, therefore increasing the risks of attacks.

According to US-based terrorism scholar and Middle East historian, Adrian Calamel, Tehran has networks in the West, but the communication between them and the regime may now be problematic:

“This has long been a concern, particularly in Europe where the regime and Hezbollah maintain well-established networks. However, the recent actions taken by the United States and Israel have likely disrupted communication between Tehran and its terrorist infrastructure in both America and Europe. Preventing the regime from regaining operational footing and keeping it in a state of disarray until it is ultimately dismantled is the most effective way to reduce the risk of future terror attacks.”

It is highly likely that Iranian networks in Europe and the United States already have directives and action plans in the event of a Western attack against the regime, and the possible communication difficulties with Tehran must not allow attention to be lowered.

Furthermore, there is a consistent risk coming from Iranian networks in Latin America that could be utilized for terror attacks, as explained by US DOD security and military contractor, Gianpiero Spinelli:

“An eventual weakening of the regime and Hezbollah in the Middle East had been potentially predicted by the Iranian intelligence and a second line of operations has been deployed in Latin America in recent years, where there is a major lack of control by the authorities. Networks may also already be in place in Europe. It is crucial that European ports and airports be subjected to increased security levels. It’s also important to monitor flights from South America with stopovers of more than a day in Central Africa. Possible Hezbollah members, etc., under the direction of VEVAK, could arrive in Europe for terrorist attacks.”

The guard must therefore remain high because, as the Iranian regime is now agonizing and far beyond survival mode, it is capable of anything, not just against the Iranian people, as already seen during the January demonstrations, but against any target that may be within reach.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)